If they beat Pitt that year and go to the NC in 07, White may have won the Heisman and they would have been in the NC game too. It would have been hard to keep and undefeated QB with good numbers out of it even if the winner that year was Tim Tebow on a 5 loss team.So, it's an odd thing to say WV won't ever approach winning an NC. And it's odd to say they'll never approach a Heisman either, since their current QB will be on every preseason list this fall.
We also don't know 100% for sure if that agreement was ever finalized. Last we know it was "making the rounds" of the Universities, and it's ****umed that it was finalized, and everyone signed.
Regarding the first bit, that's why I keep asking how we're going to get out of it everytime someone acts like the Big 12 failure in less than 6 years is a foregone conclusion. I am sure there are 'outs' under certain circumstances but I haven't heard of any and have to believe that whatever these circumstances are must be fairly remote considering TCU and WV would have been better off in the Big East if OU and Texas still had a chance to bolt. The only way out that I've heard anyone suggest so far is for a vote to disband the conference... which doesn't add up as likely when you take the whole picture into account.
With regard to big-time realignment (shake the foundations type stuff)...check this out:
1. Two years left on BCS tv contract -- In 2014, everything will be different
2. Money and viewership is down -- current format/business model is not working
3. Sweet sixteen, elite eight, final four and championship? -- how will bowls function in this arrangement? Elite eight or final four?
4. Final four after bowls? I don't see that happening -- they must "front-load" playoffs with conference championship type structures.
2. People are sick of the BCS and the ratings show
3. Keeping the bowls system is a huge anchor for moving forward. The bowl system is just getting in the way.
4. 8 conferences is the way to go. 8 champs in the playoff.
They bring **** to the table. Nobody gives a **** about them in return.
BYU has history at least.
I think all three options are deplorable, but hold BYU up to be slightly better **** than TCU and West Virginia.
If BYU joined the Big 12 right now they'd rank 3rd in the conference in attendance (behind OU and UT). BYU has 18 top 25 finishes since 1977 including five in the last 6 years. BYU's record the last 6 seasons is a ****ulative 60-18 which ranks them in the top 7 winningest programs over that time. BYU was also rated by ESPN as one of the 25 most prestigious programs in the history of college football. If BYU doesn't give "two ****s" about football then basically the rest of the Big 12, save OU and UT need to just shut their programs down right now. No one else in the Big 12 comes close to BYU in fan following, attendance, or tradition.
They are happy with 10, but would be happy with more too....you know whatever.
This from the stupid file, from OSU's Holder:
"If we do add a number, especially in football, I'd like to see us continue to play everyone in the league," said Holder. "I really liked that element of our league this year. I liked that every team played every other team. "I realize that could shrink the number of non-conference games we have. However, I'm fine with that."
The Money Quote was from OU's Joe C:
"It is easy to add slices to the pie," said OU athletic director Joe Castiglione. "It is harder to grow the pie."
Article mentions several options for the Big 12 including staying at 10, going to 11 with just adding Louisville, going to 12 adding Louisville and Cincinnati or BYU, or going beyond to 14 like the ACC and SEC or even 16 teams, but not naming any schools.
Everyone else is just filler.
Losing A&M, Nebraska, and Colorado is a huge blow that cannot be repaired with more filler schools like TCU and West Virginia. We have enough filler as it is.
The Big 12 is unsustainable over the long-run for reasons that have been disgusted ad nauseum within this thread.
Here's a kick **** core of a conference: UT, OU, NU, A&M, KU, Mizzou, CU. Covers TX, Denver, St. Louis, KC, and two national tradition rich programs in NU and OU.
Add in WVU and TCU for the hell of it. That's 9 teams. Then you can bring in Louisville, BYU, and South Florida, for a 12 team league that has geographic continuity from Salt Lake City to the outskirts of DC, 3 TX teams, 1 FL team, plus the good ole Big Red rivalry. That conference has very high earnings, for all schools. Potential cable network would be more valuable than any other conference. It would stay together. We're not talking about a super conference with five programs with multiple titles, we're just talking about maximizing the value of the conference as a whole, retaining the core elements of the Big 8/Big 12, without any unrealistic rocking of the boat (Notre Dame, raiding the ACC, Arkansas, ect).
No conference slot is wasted on redundant geographic coverage (one of the reasons why the Big 12 failed...not capable of making the same amount of money that conferences with more efficient membership allotment have been, are, and will be capable of making). Every school, except maybe TCU, brings some market to the conference that would not exist if it was not a member. Can't say that about the current Big 12, which has freeloaders like KSU, OSU, Baylor, and to a certain extent, Tech and ISU.
The only program that has left that isn't replaceable is Nebraska - but FSU would do it if those rumors are true.
Otherwise, you guys are vastly overvaluing Colorado, Missouri, and aggy.
CU has horrible facilities and such a small athletic budget that they have the bare minimum number of sports to qualify for D1. They don't have a legitimate donor base, their average attendance for football, their last year in the Big 12, was well under 50K. BYU is an upgrade from Colorado by almost every measure. More fans. Better in-game attendance. Relatively equal history.
Missouri's biggest ****et was in the supposed TV sets they brought to the Big 12. They were above average in basketball and football, but never won anything. We have a 50 year sample size to make that ****essment. If you consider that they didn't take the KC market with them when they left, and that Louisville would add 4 million plus TV sets in Kentucky/Southern Indiana (and maybe Ohio) to our TV footprint, I consider that trade a wash. Louisville out-earns Missouri in athletics revenue, with a bigger budget (and has done that from the Big East). Louisville is a basketball blue blood - something Mizzou is not.
When aggy left, we lost a huge alumni base. We didn't lose TV sets, though. East Texans aren't going to stop watching Big 12 football. (aggy cares as much about "tu" as they do A&M and will continue to watch on TV.) West Virginia adds new TV sets (whole state, plus spills over into Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Maryland), more and better history in both football and basketball, and almost as much weirdness. WVU is also Top 15 in merchandise sales in the entire country. Standing alone, A&M for WVU is not an equal trade. But when you factor in the overlap issues re: Texas TV market, then I think it equals out.
If the Big 12 adds UL and BYU to get to 12, it's in very good shape as a conference going forward. If the league somehow lures Clemson and FSU into the fold, then it has significantly upgraded over the original 12.
I can agree that BYU may be better than CU. West Virginia over A&M. But we have a relationship with CU, with Mizzou. They are border states. We have played those programs for decades, sometimes for conference titles. When two programs are a wash, the better program for OU is the one that is a traditional conference rival and from a border state. As I said, BYU makes a good addition to the Big 12...with CU in tow. It makes sense. But this geographic gap and shirking of decades of Big 8 games is despicable.Otherwise, you guys are vastly overvaluing Colorado, Missouri, and aggy.
Louisville is not a fair trade for Missouri. Kentucky is a divided state of 4.3 million, with two universities competing for eyeballs, Missouri is a unified state of 6.1 million, with only one university. Louisville is more relevant in b-ball than Mizzou, but b-ball sucks in general. They have no more of a foothold in Ohio than Missouri does in Illinois, or LSU in Texas. If the Big 12 had a cable network, it would make more money from the University of Missouri's presence in the conference than Louisville University's presence.
But we're not trading A&M for West Virginia, we're trading A&M for TCU. TCU does not have the viewership that A&M does, and losing A&M to the SEC essentially concedes everything southeast of College Station--ie, the Houston area--to the SEC. LSU had already made moves into Houston popularity wise the past few years, Arkansas has always had a resonance in TX, now the SEC has flanked Houston with TX's second most relevant university. It would have made more sense for the Big 12 to bring in Houston than TCU. The state of TX is now a divided state, when it comes to BCS conferences. The big bad SEC, with their 6 straight national titles, has a foothold in our own backyard.When aggy left, we lost a huge alumni base. We didn't lose TV sets, though. East Texans aren't going to stop watching Big 12 football. (aggy cares as much about "tu" as they do A&M and will continue to watch on TV.) West Virginia adds new TV sets (whole state, plus spills over into Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Maryland), more and better history in both football and basketball, and almost as much weirdness. WVU is also Top 15 in merchandise sales in the entire country. Standing alone, A&M for WVU is not an equal trade. But when you factor in the overlap issues re: Texas TV market, then I think it equals out.
And if the SEC does put together their own cable network, everyone in TX will be forced to subscribe to it--likely before everyone is forced to subscribe to the Longhorn network (if that ever happens). A&M has a cultural long reach in TX, due to their satellite campuses.
The Big 12 lost BCS conference coverage monopolies: of the state of TX, of the state of Colorado, of the state of Missouri, of the state of Nebraska, monopolies of those states, and our response is trying to take half of Utah via BYU (shared with the PAC 12), half of Kentucky via Louisville (shared with the SEC), all of Ft. Worth, and all of West Virginia. There is no way that is a reasonable trade off, and in the long term, the numbers will bear this out.
The only salvation of the Big 12 is a raid of the ACC.
I wouldn't necessarily agree that A&M fans would still follow the Big 12 just to root against Texas. I didn't give a **** about SWC football when OU and UT were in separate conferences, and I don't think A&M fans would be that much different. If anything, you could say the same thing about UT, that UT fans are now going to start tuning TX tv sets (thus ratings and money) to SEC games just to troll A&M. In fact, I would guarantee the latter is more likely, because UT is more invested in seeing A&M fail in the new SEC than A&M would be in seeing UT fail in the new Big 12.
Spot on.The Big 12 lost BCS conference coverage monopolies: of the state of TX, of the state of Colorado, of the state of Missouri, of the state of Nebraska, monopolies of those states, and our response is trying to take half of Utah via BYU (shared with the PAC 12), half of Kentucky via Louisville (shared with the SEC), all of Ft. Worth, and all of West Virginia. There is no way that is a reasonable trade off, and in the long term, the numbers will bear this out.
The Big 12 in its current form is an unsustainable business model. Even if BYU and Louisville are added, the Big 12 will vastly trail the SEC, B1G, PAC and ACC in network earning power.
I would argue that the loss of Colorado wasn't that big of a deal over all to the Big 12. Missouri, A&M + Colorado as far as TV audience nationally isn't that different then TCU, West Virginia, BYU, and Louisville. Yes Nebraska was the irreplaceable one.
What are the odds of raiding 4-6 ACC teams? Get FSU/Clemson to start and add Ga. Tech & NC State (get out of the UNC/Duke shadow) for a Piedmont pod. Then go for VA Tech, UVA & Maryland to add to WVU. If you still need teams then get Rutgers, Louisville, or UConn (only w/ Rutgers). Put Iowa State in the east and you have 2 -8 team east/west divisions.
We are trading CU, NU, A&M, and Mizzou for WVU, TCU, and maybe BYU and Louisville. I pointed out the head to head comparisons to demonstrate that the Big 12 arguably upgraded in at least 3 of those trades. NU >>> TCU. I bet TCU wins another BCS bowl game before Nebraska does, though.
Cable companies and satellite providers aren't going to ask any Texans whether they are Aggies. They're going to measure demand for the network and charge accordingly. UT, Tech, TCU, and Baylor, their fans and their alums, would make demand in Texas very high - we don't need A&M for that. Providers would carry the Big 12 Network in the state of Kentucky - and charge accordingly - if Louisville created that demand. Initially the demand wouldn't be high in Eastern Kentucky, but it would probably be carried. UL's pull in southern Indiana would more than likely offset lower initial pricing in Eastern Kentucky.
Last edited by Camel at Sea; 02-21-2012 at 10:43 PM.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong on the #'s here, but this is how I'm understanding this.....
The B12 TV revenues currently break down as follows.
T1 -- $6M/school ($60M total) --- ABC/ESPN
T2 -- $9M/school ($90M total) --- FX
T3 -- whatever you kill
Each school is currently making roughly $15M/year from our T-1 and T-2 rights.
So, our second-most valuable product (T2-FX) is earning us 150% more than our most valuable product (T1-ABC/ESPN).
The B12's current T1 deal (ABC/ESPN) is ancient. It's the most undervalued contract in all of CFB. So it's reasonable to project the B12's updated T1 contract will likely be twice as valuable as our current T2 (FX) contract --- whether we renegotiate early with Disney or take it to the open market and let one their competitors have a shot at it.
It wouldn't seem like the Mouse to let a football-crazy conference in the CTZ slip through his fingers....especially when the CFB is smokin hot.
So, the new T1 deal will probably be in the ballpark of $180+M/year. And it could be more than that considering the red-hot CFB tv market.
So....after the upcoming negotiations:
$27M/year per year....for T1 and T2.
Now, throw in the revenue from OU's upcoming T3 deal with FSN....and now we're talkin' $30M+/Year for OU from our TV revenue alone.
So OU is looking at doubling our TV $ in the B12 within the next couple years. And so are the other B12 programs.
And that's all ****uming we stick with the ten-team model.
So even if the ACC raid does not happen, in a few years West Virginia and TCU will be making $10+M more in TV revenue than FSU and Clemson. Over the course of a decade, WVU and TCU will out-earn FSU and Clemson by over $100M in TV revenue.
This is why leaders at Clemson and FSU would be guilty of negligence if they didn't at least listen to what the B12 has to say. The ACC is locked in for 15 years at around $15M/Year. And their recent additions of Pitt/Syracuse barely moved the needle.
Time is the B12's ally and the ACC's enemy.
Isn't that about right?
North Carolina and Duke aren't leaving...and they control NCstate (one board of regents) With those 3, Wake Forest will stay as well (they are the ACC version of Baylor anyways). With Duke and North Carolina, Ga. Tech will stay for the "academic prestige" (which I get in the B1G and the PAC as they share research $) With those Virginia will stay for the basketball, which will keep Va. Tech in (too many strings were pulled to get Va Tech INTO the ACC). Syracuse and Boston College are too far of outliers to have any real huge interest in the Big 12, and vice-versa as they wanted to be in a conference together.
Those that could leave conceivably:
FSU, Clemson, Miami, Maryland, Pitt
The real kicker is the Tier 3 portion. Pooled into a Conference Network with the likes of Clemson and FSU....we could be talking some serious money there, beyond the typical $3-5 million or so many schools make currently on their own
As far as conference expansion goes, we only need to get two more teams. If we could get a Clemson/FSU to join us, that would be so great. They arent big time basketball schools so leaving the ACC for better football would be right up their alley. It would be hard to entice a GAtech or NCst because they are more about basketball than football. VAtech may want to move since they are pro-football school too. If I had to ask for my dream four, it would be CLEM/FSU/VAtech/Nevada(gotta go west sometime). That would make the B12 one nasty conference.
May not happen, but certainly worth a look. That would be a mean conference right there. The conference would get more visiblity across the country. If you want to move to 16 teams, invite Fresno State and SDSU from out west. You could divide it up in east and west divisions or four pod systems if you wish.
West - SDSU, NEV, FRESNO, TT, OSU, OU, KU, TX EAST - KST, IAst, TCU, BU, CLEM, FSU, WVU, VAT
North - IAst, KU, Kst, VAT, WVU, NEV, OU, OSU SOUTH - FSU, TX, TT, BU, CLEM, SDSU, FRST, TCU
POD1 - SDSU, NEV, TT, FRST POD2 KU, Kst, IAst, OKst POD3 OU, TX, TCU, BU (eww, nasty), POD4 CLEM, FSU, VAT, WVU(dang, even nastier)
Would be some mean football played right there. Play a two game OOC, have a conference bye week meaning everyone takes a bye at week at the same time, and a 9 game conference schedule and a title game.
Last edited by bruthaman; 02-22-2012 at 07:14 AM.
However, I don't see the ACC totally collapsing, nor do I see the B1G expanding (so long as Notre Dame is an independent). The SEC, would love North Carolina and Duke, but not sure those 2 want the white trash rift-raff of the SEC......even for millions of dollars of more money.
I think if the Big 12 does actually grab FSU and Clemson, the ACC will fall apart fast. It will shake the foundation of what people see as a stable conference and expose it as a house of cards and put the remaining schools in a very uneasy position. Schools that were once thought to be set on staying will be much more open to moving to another conference, particularly when you factor that the ACC will be making even less money as a whole going forward. This will likely get the SEC and Big 10 involved. I definitely see the SEC taking 2 and the Big 10 taking at least 1. Then the Big 12 will have easy pickens for what's left and given the three conferences seem to primarily want different schools, it works even better. If it all happens in one season, the ACC members leaving can vote to dissolve and forgo any exit penalties.
Although some might think of georgia tech as an afterhtought in all of this, I think they might actually be on of the key componants. The only football schools that FSU really cares about playing in the ACC are Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami. The team that Miami really cares about playing is FSU. The teams that Clemson really care about playing are FSU and Georgia Tech. You could possibly throw in North Carolina.
Georgia Tech likes to be ****ociated with good academic schools (Duke, UNC, UVA, etc.) as does Miami (this is one of the reasons they really wanted to join the ACC). So if Georgia Tech's only football rivals in the ACC (Clemson and FSU) along with another good to great academic school in Miami plan on leaving for the Big XII, Georgia Tech would be pressured pretty hard from donors, fans, etc. to go as well. This would allow Georgia Tech to cling to rivalries and not lose too much on the academic side of things. Throw in the fact that the ACC has been moving north during the past couple expansions (Pitt, Syracuse, BC) this might be enticing for these schools. Especially, if the money is right.
And if something like this would happen, a Big XII - SEC series could be huge!
G Tech - UGA
Clemson - South Carolina
FSU - Florida
Texas - TAMU
Kansas - Mizzou
OU - Arkansas?
I think most of you kind of get the picture. This would allow rivalries to be maintained by the 4 new teams and get the Big XII some killer television rights (UM-FSU, GTech - Clemson, Clemson-FSU, etc)
Last edited by MAcFroggy; 02-22-2012 at 12:07 PM.