We are reaching critical mass and I don't think both the big12 and ACC will survive. I think it's either or. When I say survive, I mean as a "BCS" level conference where we have been. Of course, the loser could be the next conference USA, but is that really surviving?
We could form our own power conference with the best of big12/ACC but that would require eliminating osu, Baylor, WF, BC, etc. Thats not happening. So, I think it's going to be us or them, not both.
I think "not survive" is a bit strong. It took a lot to kill the WAC and there wasn't even a lot of money involved in it. Conferences with television deals can always backfill instead of folding. Whether you want to watch their games is a whole other deal.
They may not pay the same amount, but that is different that being able to unilaterally walk away from the contract. The Big XII wouldn't get the same money if it lost its star teams, but it wouldn't just go away. My guess is it would grab as many MWC teams as it could (see ACC-BE relationship the last couple of decades) and try to limit the damage. The only conferences that are truly in danger of disappearing are the ones that don't have anyone else to steal from.
I'm confused as to how the GOR is supposed to keep members in the conference. For example is OU, Texas, KU and forth member bolt for the PAC, who cares if the Big XII thinks they own the rights to the games. Doesn't the conference have to still pay out the TV money to that team even if they are in another conference? Plus the fact that on the field, uniform, court, helmet etc..would be PAC 16, so that's free advirtising. Then considering ESPN / Fox would immediately back out of the TV deal because OU and Texas wouldn't be playing the ISU, Baylor and Tech's of the world, that would be a plus for the bolting teams.
Ultimately, for the future of OU and Texas, it makes sense to break this thing up sooner rather than later. Why wait until every spot is taken and OU and Texas are stuck for the next 100 years in a subpar conference. Is David Boren, or Joe C paying any attention to anything???
I'm pretty sure there are only two ways to sue your way out of a GOR:
1)the conference fails in its fiduciary duty (that's not going to be a winning argument when you grant your rights to the conference at the same time the conference signs a television deal. That implies you are ok with the financial payout) or
2) something changes materially about the conference. (e.g. a change in the revenue sharing agreement, the addition of other members, etc.)
Basically, the only way for a school to get out is for the conference to vote to change something and for a member that wants to leave to vote no and then sue their way out of the conference. (If the change is something petty, the conference would just drop the issue)
This is where it gets interesting. Kansas, is a valuable commodity that could be a player in this game that most people dont know. Yeah they dont bring in the football revenue but their top tier basketball program AND their AAU status makes them a VERY valuable target. I wouldnt be a bit suprised if B1G is talking to them also. However, I believe in order for them to do such thing, the B1G would also have to be talking to OU to further "materially change" the Big12 due to these two defecting. My assumptions for both OU and KU pitches are to add on both little brothers into the B1G which Delany would not be happy about.
Another theory which I think is more realistic and the reason why we are in a stand still is the state of Texas tv exposure. Neither B1G nor Pac12 have any whatsoever. Texas being the Mecca of that spot is currently content with their position. Why? They BELIEVE that they are in the most beneficial spot that they could be in. Otherwise, the landscape would be drastically different. Both B1G and PAC12 want Texas. Who doesnt? They're the most valuable not only on the market, but in the country on a D1 level.
I firmly believe that the B1G would love to have OU come on board. But in order to have this, they want more exposure to Texas How would they do this? Convince Texas or settle for TCU (which I believe they would be content with). However, if OU goes there, so does KU.
Just my 2 cents
The Pac needs 4 schools for any kind of a move to occur (anything less creates internal problems among the schools that result in 4 "no" votes). Even going over 16 has problems as to how the conference will be divided. That is going to have to be decided before the presidents are willing to vote.
OU and UT are obvious. The last two spots the Pac would probably prefer to be Texas schools, but you have arguments that might work for OSU as well.
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (I don't know if they have an American football team, but you find a way to make it work)
KU (basketball here)
Bias aside, what makes TTU more attractive to the PAC than OSU?
Texas A&M - 1997, 1998, 2010, 2012 Big 12 Champs*
The number of hot chicks per capita at TCU compared to TTU should gain them favor with the Pac, I would think.
IF they could actually get UT, the PAC-12 would want Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and whoever...in that order. Period.
And because of the politics, Kansas would be added first. That's the lesson learned from last time.
And one of OSU and TTU would then be squeezed out. (read: OSU)
So it's not about making a choice between OSU and TTU. It's about getting the 3 new markets, with two AAU schools, two football powers and a basketball titan. And then basically giving UT what they want, which I would guess might be TTU. Otherwise, if Larry Scott could draft 4 (no politics involved) he'd take UT. OU, KU (in that order) and then find a new 4th market for those new networks.
Great. The West Virginia hillbillies are now whining about travel after having been in the B12 only 6 months or so.
MORGANTOWN — West Virginia University’s athletic department and the Big 12 Conference have agreed to attempt to make some travel changes to accommodate the problems the Mountaineers faced during their first season in the league.
Athletic Director Oliver Luck says the league offered no guarantees because “scheduling is always a challenge” but the league has agreed to attempt to make life on the road easier in a number of areas when it can.
WVU geographically is out of place in the Big 12, with every trip not only being of 1,700 miles round trip or more but fighting a time zone change which costs them an hour returning to Morgantown.
It only works if everyone does it.
Texas A&M - 1997, 1998, 2010, 2012 Big 12 Champs*
It's different for the PAC because OU would have for example Texas, KU, and Tech as close mates in the new league. In a Pod system they would only travel out West two or three times per year max. If a Pod system existed, the schedule might be ( Texas / KU / Tech / UCLA / Colorado / Stanford / Washington / Arizona / Utah ). Take out going to Colorado, since we did that in the Big 8 for many years anyways, then you only travel West two to three times per year.
Even if OU were to have to travel West say four times per year, I'd be out there for two or three of those games, and I live in the Midwest. I'd much rather go to the West Coast vs. Waco, Ames, Manhatten or Morgantown.
Bring on the PAC 16
West Virginia, on the other hand, plays ALL of their road games in the CST. So when its the 4 home 5 away conference schedule rotation...that is five road games 1500+ miles away, with many Big 12 land grant schools hours removed from any major metro area for convenient fan travel (contrasted with Tuscon, Denver, Salt Lake, and Phoenix in the Western Division of a PAC 16). There isn't a comparison between WVU's situation and a hypothetical PAC 16. WVU probably has some buyers remorse after seeing Louisville going to the ACC. If they waited, they could have been added to the ACC in Louisville's place (WVU probably would have won the Big East this year), thus rekindling natural rivalries with Pitt, UVA, and Va Tech.
But travel is a concern, whether its OU to the PAC or FSU to the Big 12. That's why FSU and Clemson won't join. It's why FSU, Clemson, Miami, and Ga Tech won't join. But it's why FSU, Clemson, Miami, Ga Tech, UNC, and Duke very well MAY join, because it softens the travel burden to have a large party of members in the same time zone.
It's perfectly reasonable for WVU to ask for some travel concessions, especially in basketball. How hard would it be to schedule WVU Saturday/Monday games for their trips to Oklahoma and Kansas? They could play the Sooners on the road on Saturday and then hit Stillwater for Big Monday a couple days later. Do that, and they've knocked out both road games in one trip. They could do the same for the KU/K-State games, too.
I didn't get the sense that Luck was whining about the travel, though. He was just pointing out some things the league could do to save them money.
Kevin Harlan, a KU grad and well respective broadcaster (not blogger) on KC radio this morning talking about his sources saying the B1G is definitely going to 16 and possibly 20 with KU involved:
That interview made it sound like it was "being discussed internally" within the B1G. Nothing too earth shattering. Also there was bit more scuttlebut about Mizzou leaving the SEC for the B1G. Now THAT would be hilarious. College sports will be better off when Jim Delaney is no longer involved with it.
Relative levels of evil (increasing from left to right):
Jim Delaney -> Hitler/Stalin -> Mike Slive -> Lucifer -> Nick Saban
Big East might sell the name to The Catholic 7
A new television deal with ESPN, despite the low payout, allows the Big East to transition from a tumultuous 15 months.
Will a name change complete the makeover?
The Big East namesake was part of the television negotiations with NBC, according to a source -- a potential provision of roughly $2 million for the network to market a new name should the league sell the Big East handle to the departing Catholic 7.
The NBC Sports Network offered a reported $20-23 million per year for the Big East's media rights, but ESPN had the exclusive rights to match, which it did last week. It's uncertain whether ESPN's deal has the same provision.
Big East officials did not provide clarification on the contractual language upon request. CBSSports.com has reached out to an ESPN spokesman on the matter.
In December, a Big East attorney sent the Catholic 7 -- composed of DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova – a document titled “Mutual Commitment Agreement – Initial Separation Issues List” asking the group whether it wishes to retain the name.
The basketball schools might have more attachment to it because of their history in the league. If the name is worth, say, $8-10 million, that's good money for a football league that resembles the old Conference USA after several waves of conference realignment.
No football team in the 10-team Big East lineup for 2014 has held membership for more than nine years.
More than half this new-look league has yet to make its Big East football debut.
The conference's anchors, UConn and Cincinnati, would prefer to join the ACC. The league will add Navy in 2014 and could include Tulsa in the coming months.