OU's slow slide

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  1. #1

    OU's slow slide

    Take on how OU has fallen from a great football program to a good one:

    http://www.blatanthomerism.com/2012-...t-to-good.html

  2. #2
    Fahooglegods's Avatar
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    This should go over well with the non-stop sunshine pumpers around here.
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  3. #3
    Your math is off for the year 2008. The winning percentage for that year is 85.7%. Somewhat poking a hole in your theory of slide towards a decline.

  4. #4
    Seems to me that Bob Stoops set the bar and you want it to go higher. Do you not feel that Bob Stoops would like that bar to go higher? Pull yourself away from the cliff all will be alright! :-)

  5. #5
    I will never understand how we lose two games to the number 1 and number 6 teams and it's considered a decline.

  6. #6
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    Makes some sense. Hopefully the coaches can turn it in the other direction sooner rather than later.

  7. #7
    Well, the good news is OU got rid of the problem on defense after last season and now the problem on offense has just one game left (there is more to football than stats). Also, OU's special teams have improved after being very bad from 2008 and on.
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  8. #8
    Originally Posted by sportsproducer View Post
    Seems to me that Bob Stoops set the bar and you want it to go higher. Do you not feel that Bob Stoops would like that bar to go higher? Pull yourself away from the cliff all will be alright! :-)
    The bar for a successful season at OU was set way before Bob Stoops got here. We won championships before Bob and we will win them after Bob. The real question is will we win another with Bob?
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  9. #9
    Originally Posted by URNotserious View Post
    Your math is off for the year 2008. The winning percentage for that year is 85.7%. Somewhat poking a hole in your theory of slide towards a decline.
    It's a four-year moving average.
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  10. #10
    Really no reason to have a recruiting class not ranked in the top 10. Says coaches aren't working as hard - in both recruiting and putting a product on the field that excites the top prospects.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Blatant Homerism View Post
    It's a four-year moving average.
    I stand corrected! Thanks.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by CrimsonRez View Post
    I will never understand how we lose two games to the number 1 and number 6 teams and it's considered a decline.
    Look at the bigger picture compared to where OU was and where the program is now. It's possible for OU to have a good year and still recognize that the program has slipped in the longer term.
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  13. #13
    We lost to two good teams. No question.

    But we also narrowly avoided a loss to WV (set defensive records for futility), went to OT at home against a then 7-4 OSU team, and narrowly avoided defeat again down in Ft. Worth.

    I think the record this year actually masks how average we were.
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  14. #14
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Stoops has got to at least be thinking about making coaching changes and replacing them with better recruiters.
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  15. #15
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    Stoops has got to at least be thinking about making coaching changes and replacing them with better recruiters.
    Maybe one of the Dline coaches from Cardinal Mooney High School is out of work?

  16. #16
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    Originally Posted by lobster999 View Post
    Maybe one of the Dline coaches from Cardinal Mooney High School is out of work?
    I was thinking he should give the UCLA OL coach a call?

  17. #17
    Win percentage is going to decline when your playing less games.

  18. #18
    Mr. Pink's Avatar
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    Pretty good article that took about 8 minutes to think up and write. I also wonder if this person could write an article about the sky being blue and water being wet. You know, to tell us what we already know, but have zero point in doing so.
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  19. #19
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    Originally Posted by oudidntknow84 View Post
    Win percentage is going to decline when your playing less games.
    "...when you're playing fewer games."

    This will help those us on this board who speak and read the English language.
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  20. #20
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    I'd have nailed 8-5 had Saunders and Brown not been added at the last minute. We were close to an awful season.

  21. #21
    Metoyer needs to have a really really good offseason or hes going to get passed up.

  22. #22
    Nazgul's Avatar
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    OU's slow slide

    I think the blog post wanted to fit the data into the narration, rather than have the data narrate the story.
    OU was in the hunt this year and was eliminated by Notre Dame. Oregon was in the hunt and was eliminated by Stanford. Welcome to the month of November in College Football.

    With a share of the Big 12, and almost making a BCS bowl, this year was a good year.

    The recruiting problems are due to personnel, and not to due to the health of the program.

    What about the money OU football is raking in? That trend is going up. I don't see a fading of OU; I'm seeing some problems that can be fixed, rather easily.

  23. #23
    Nazgul's Avatar
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    OU's slow slide

    Originally Posted by Mr. Pink View Post
    Pretty good article that took about 8 minutes to think up and write. I also wonder if this person could write an article about the sky being blue and water being wet. You know, to tell us what we already know, but have zero point in doing so.
    When the number is less than ten, you should have used "eight" rather than 8.
    The linked post is a column or a blog post, and not an article. The last sentence is a mess.

    /****grammar'd
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  24. #24
    I think maybe OP needs some real problems in his life, so he will have something to really worry about.

    Any analysis based upon recrootin rankings is not worth the time of day.
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  25. #25
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    We lost to two good teams. No question.

    But we also narrowly avoided a loss to WV (set defensive records for futility), went to OT at home against a then 7-4 OSU team, and narrowly avoided defeat again down in Ft. Worth.

    I think the record this year actually masks how average we were.
    that was good stuff...
    could you analyze nd's season for us?

  26. #26
    Hopefully, the Oklahoma administration will be smart at some point and never schedule ND again. Why mess with a curse that has no elixir?

  27. #27
    Originally Posted by Nazgul View Post
    When the number is less than ten, you should have used "eight" rather than 8.
    The linked post is a column or a blog post, and not an article. The last sentence is a mess.

    /****grammar'd
    He is just mad because he had a hard time trying to figure out that when you play less games percentages tend to go down.

  28. #28
    I think there has been an appreciable decline on the defense. Was that BV's schemes? Recruiting? D-line development? Not sure. But for one reason or another, J. Mac, McGee, Walker, R.J. Washington, etc., failed to live up to very lofty recruiting expectations.

    Big picture? That '09 team could have played for a national title if it hadn't had the worst run of injury luck in Sooners' history. Instead, it lost 5 games away from Norman, all to teams that finished in the Top 25, and four of those losses were by a combined 12 points.

    This year's team lost the interior of the O-line in the pre-season, and lost two very close games to two teams that finished 23-1. Would those guys up front have made a difference against K-State or Notre Dame? I guess there's no way to know. Would a healthy O-line have helped in some of our closer wins? Again, impossible to know, but you've got to think the ability to run the ball might have helped against WVU. If Austin isn't on the field, he's not running through our no-linebackers scheme.

    We need a dominant d-tackle and we need some injury luck on the O-line. Get those two things back in Norman, and we'll be rolling again.

  29. #29
    Would the "Grammar Police" please call me immediately
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  30. #30
    Originally Posted by Camel at Sea View Post
    I think there has been an appreciable decline on the defense. Was that BV's schemes? Recruiting? D-line development? Not sure. But for one reason or another, J. Mac, McGee, Walker, R.J. Washington, etc., failed to live up to very lofty recruiting expectations.

    Big picture? That '09 team could have played for a national title if it hadn't had the worst run of injury luck in Sooners' history. Instead, it lost 5 games away from Norman, all to teams that finished in the Top 25, and four of those losses were by a combined 12 points.

    This year's team lost the interior of the O-line in the pre-season, and lost two very close games to two teams that finished 23-1. Would those guys up front have made a difference against K-State or Notre Dame? I guess there's no way to know. Would a healthy O-line have helped in some of our closer wins? Again, impossible to know, but you've got to think the ability to run the ball might have helped against WVU. If Austin isn't on the field, he's not running through our no-linebackers scheme.

    We need a dominant d-tackle and we need some injury luck on the O-line. Get those two things back in Norman, and we'll be rolling again.
    hang onto the ball.....+ jalen saunders......and we would have beaten kstate by 21 pts minimum.....
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  31. #31
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    Originally Posted by zcaa0g View Post
    Hopefully, the Oklahoma administration will be smart at some point and never schedule ND again. Why mess with a curse that has no elixir?
    We should beat anyone regardless of schedule. It's sad that our fans are intimidated by teams we play. We haven't been as good since about 2005 really. 08 was an exception because Bradford was better than anyone thought he would be and we had Jermaine Gresham. Without him that offense isn't nearly as good. We've had good players here and there since then but not really that good of teams and we have coaching that limits our talent a lot.

  32. #32
    Originally Posted by bruthaman View Post
    Metoyer needs to have a really really good offseason or hes going to get passed up.
    While I agree he needs to have a good spring. I don't see why you would think that he is going to be passed up. He's just a freshmen after all. He plays the same primary position as Brown and Stills. Brown will be gone after this year and Stills might be as well. He will have every opportunity to play next year.

  33. #33
    Originally Posted by SoonerLibertarian View Post
    We should beat anyone regardless of schedule. It's sad that our fans are intimidated by teams we play. We haven't been as good since about 2005 really. 08 was an exception because Bradford was better than anyone thought he would be and we had Jermaine Gresham. Without him that offense isn't nearly as good. We've had good players here and there since then but not really that good of teams and we have coaching that limits our talent a lot.
    Yeah, that 2005 season was one to remember huh ?

    And losing to OSU in 2001, that was fun.

    Getting routed by OSU in 2002 was even more fun, that was really great.

    Especially since OU enjoyed an advantage of running an offense that no one in the Big 12 had seen , or had yet to understand how to contain.



    You guys worry too much.

  34. #34
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    Originally Posted by SoonerLibertarian View Post
    We should beat anyone regardless of schedule. It's sad that our fans are intimidated by teams we play. We haven't been as good since about 2005 really. 08 was an exception because Bradford was better than anyone thought he would be and we had Jermaine Gresham. Without him that offense isn't nearly as good. We've had good players here and there since then but not really that good of teams and we have coaching that limits our talent a lot.
    and if demarco doesn't miss the orange bowl we win the BCS title game

  35. #35
    Originally Posted by SoonerLibertarian View Post
    We should beat anyone regardless of schedule. It's sad that our fans are intimidated by teams we play. We haven't been as good since about 2005 really. 08 was an exception because Bradford was better than anyone thought he would be and we had Jermaine Gresham. Without him that offense isn't nearly as good. We've had good players here and there since then but not really that good of teams and we have coaching that limits our talent a lot.
    Do the math. ND will be OU's lone loss next season and it wouldn't matter if they lost every other game that season. It's a damn curse!!!

  36. #36
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    Why do you expect OU to lose that game? How do you know we won't lose other games next year? We could easily lose to just about anyone right now. Texas Tech has beaten us 4 times since 2005 and blew us out last time we played them at home. I guess we shouldn't have them on the schedule either according to your logic. We have no real home field advantage anymore because we play such a timid style on both sides of the ball that everyone actually scouts for. I'm not even sure we look at other teams game films anymore.

  37. #37
    Originally Posted by oudidntknow84 View Post
    Win percentage is going to decline when your playing less games.
    Sure, if you're not winning a greater share of games.

  38. #38
    Originally Posted by SoonerLibertarian View Post
    Why do you expect OU to lose that game? How do you know we won't lose other games next year? We could easily lose to just about anyone right now. Texas Tech has beaten us 4 times since 2005 and blew us out last time we played them at home. I guess we shouldn't have them on the schedule either according to your logic. We have no real home field advantage anymore because we play such a timid style on both sides of the ball that everyone actually scouts for. I'm not even sure we look at other teams game films anymore.
    TTU 41 - OU 38

  39. #39
    Originally Posted by CrimsonRez View Post
    I will never understand how we lose two games to the number 1 and number 6 teams and it's considered a decline.
    So we are not on par then with the top 6 at least by that measure, and hence will not compete for meaningful NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS if this is the case, again by the above rationale.

    Correct?

  40. #40
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    that was good stuff...
    could you analyze nd's season for us?
    They won some games that went to the wire against some avg/bad teams. But in Norman they won by 17. They beat Navy, Miami and Wake Forest by more. So I guess we have that to hang our hat on.

    Honestly - I've been a OU fan since 1971 and this year we saw some truly horrific defense and a offense that couldn't answer in our two losses. 10-2 is stunning given what we saw on the field. Very lucky Bell got across the goal line against OSU and that we finally got a holding call in the TCU game.

    Yes 10-2 is a good record. But we were far from being a great team in 2012.

  41. #41
    Originally Posted by Blatant Homerism View Post
    Sure, if you're not winning a greater share of games.
    How can you win games you dont play? But its the 4 year moving average that makes it look worse than it is. Why didnt you use a 5 year average or a 3 year average?

    2001 11 2
    2002 12 2 82.7
    2003 12 2 88.9

    2010 12 2 78.2
    2011 10 3 77.8
    2012 10 2 76.9 Not counting bowl game

    Not much different there

  42. #42
    SoonerLibertarian's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Camel at Sea View Post
    TTU 41 - OU 38
    Did you watch that game? We were getting destroyed till we decided to show in the 4th quarter.
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  43. #43
    Originally Posted by SoonerLibertarian View Post
    Did you watch that game? We were getting destroyed till we decided to show in the 4th quarter.
    Football isn't a 4 quarter game? That was a 7 point game 5 seconds into the 4th quarter. We should have won the game, and we should never lose to Tech at home... but we weren't blown out.

  44. #44
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    They won some games that went to the wire against some avg/bad teams. But in Norman they won by 17. They beat Navy, Miami and Wake Forest by more. So I guess we have that to hang our hat on.

    Honestly - I've been a OU fan since 1971 and this year we saw some truly horrific defense and a offense that couldn't answer in our two losses. 10-2 is stunning given what we saw on the field. Very lucky Bell got across the goal line against OSU and that we finally got a holding call in the TCU game.

    Yes 10-2 is a good record. But we were far from being a great team in 2012.
    yet there are very few teams in the country better than us.....
    and those that are.....not by much....

  45. #45
    Originally Posted by Nazgul View Post
    I think the blog post wanted to fit the data into the narration, rather than have the data narrate the story.
    OU was in the hunt this year and was eliminated by Notre Dame. Oregon was in the hunt and was eliminated by Stanford. Welcome to the month of November in College Football.

    With a share of the Big 12, and almost making a BCS bowl, this year was a good year.

    The recruiting problems are due to personnel, and not to due to the health of the program.

    What about the money OU football is raking in? That trend is going up. I don't see a fading of OU; I'm seeing some problems that can be fixed, rather easily.
    When you have an undefeated team at No. 1 and a cluster of teams with one-loss teams trying to get to No. 2, it's a stretch to say OU was really in the hunt for the national championship with two losses.

    Like I said, you can have a good year and still be showing signs of decay.

  46. #46
    The article was about as deep as the kiddie pool.

    We had off years in 2005 and 2009 when we graduated tons of starters the previous years and played in the MNC game. In 2009, we also had tons of injuries.

    I'd say that we've more flatlined just outside the MNC game than we've declined.

    OTOH, there's no question that our recruiting on the OL and DL is not what it needs to be to complete successfully for the NC.
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  47. #47
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    They won some games that went to the wire against some avg/bad teams. But in Norman they won by 17. They beat Navy, Miami and Wake Forest by more. So I guess we have that to hang our hat on.

    Honestly - I've been a OU fan since 1971 and this year we saw some truly horrific defense and a offense that couldn't answer in our two losses. 10-2 is stunning given what we saw on the field. Very lucky Bell got across the goal line against OSU and that we finally got a holding call in the TCU game.

    Yes 10-2 is a good record. But we were far from being a great team in 2012.
    Using your logic the other way, if Bell catches the snap in the K-State game and the crooked refs call holding against ND and not against us (both bad calls/no calls), then we've unbeaten and playing Bama in the NC game.

    The game is like that. Lots of parity and little difference b/t 12-0 and 10-2.

    Personally, I like the fact that we won 2 games in the dying seconds, being behind. It shows character.

  48. #48
    Originally Posted by SoonerLibertarian View Post
    Why do you expect OU to lose that game? How do you know we won't lose other games next year? We could easily lose to just about anyone right now. Texas Tech has beaten us 4 times since 2005 and blew us out last time we played them at home. I guess we shouldn't have them on the schedule either according to your logic. We have no real home field advantage anymore because we play such a timid style on both sides of the ball that everyone actually scouts for. I'm not even sure we look at other teams game films anymore.
    Texas Tech beat Brent Vulnerables, not Mike Stoops. It's funny how they don't do jack crap when Mike Stoops is the defensive coordinator and surely you won't be foolish enough to point out the 1999 season.

    How do I know that Oklahoma won't lose other games next season? Simple, OU's QB won't run out of bounds short of first down markers. OU's QB won't dive well short of first down markers to avoid contact despite the fact that he could go a few more yards and still avoid contact. OU's QB when rolling out of the pocket won't throw the ball away just because every receiver is covered when there is plenty of open territory for him to run for a first down. The latter is the instincts of the vast majority of QBs that aren't afraid to take a hit.

    OU will be better at DT barring injury, because it will be more athletic, which will help out the other positions immensely. Additionally, OU's schedule sets up great with bye weeks before facing dynamic offenses of Baylor and OSU and a bye for the ND game as well, which unfortunately won't help. Also, the opposition loses a lot of key personnel outside of OSU and Texas and Texas still has severe QB issues and generally, coaching issues on both sides of the ball.

  49. #49
    Nazgul's Avatar
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    OU's slow slide

    Originally Posted by Blatant Homerism View Post
    When you have an undefeated team at No. 1 and a cluster of teams with one-loss teams trying to get to No. 2, it's a stretch to say OU was really in the hunt for the national championship with two losses.

    Like I said, you can have a good year and still be showing signs of decay.
    Huh? OU was a one-loss team prior to the Nd game, and very much in the hunt. ND eliminated OU.

  50. #50
    Originally Posted by oudidntknow84 View Post
    How can you win games you dont play? But its the 4 year moving average that makes it look worse than it is. Why didnt you use a 5 year average or a 3 year average?

    2001 11 2
    2002 12 2 82.7
    2003 12 2 88.9

    2010 12 2 78.2
    2011 10 3 77.8
    2012 10 2 76.9 Not counting bowl game

    Not much different there
    You can lose fewer of the games that you do play. You can use five years or three years if you want. Either way, the general trend is down.

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