|
|
Nothing good would come from it compared to preventing it but with all political parties spending us ever deeper in debt it becomes more likely.
If there is a coming collapse it'll be more at the federal government level because they can't pay for all this crap than at a level where it'll really effect big business that much long term. It would effect the middle and lower classes big time though.
very simple minded answerOriginally Posted by oucub23
First of all, theres no way to know unless it happens
Of course it wouldnt be good for us now but you cant say this would be a bad thing for future generations if it sparked some sort of change for the better, Its hard to say that it would but there is simply no way to know that
If youre looking at the big picture, I'd say its definitely possible
The following users like this post: TIMB0B
Ask Russia how that worked out for them
It's not simple-minded at all. First, we hold the reserve currency for the world. If we collapse, that's not ****ured to remain. Also, we would more than likely trigger a global depression. That typically means war, and a rise of facism and totalitarianism. Last, and most importantly, avoiding a collapse means we've solved our problems and have fixed our spending problems. In what universe is a collapse into who knows what better than figuring out what we've been doing wrong and repairing it?
Hoping that a collapse and the repercussions of that will lead us to something better is what is simple minded. That's like making the case for communism because it 'could' lead to something better and it looks really good on paper.
did i say anything about hoping for a collapse and that the effects could lead to something better?
Nope, but nice try. putting words in other peoples mouths is a sure way to make your case
All I was saying was that it is possible that a collapse could lead to better things in the future, so to answer the op's question with an absolute no is just simple minded.
Heh, irony. I didn't say you were hoping for a collapse. I said you were hoping it would lead to something better. It won't. Our government and country are an historic aberration. Collapse brings hunger, instability and fear. That has never led to smaller government or more freedom that I know of. The only way one would believe it could lead to something better is if they believe our government needs to expand.
You're still claiming i said something that i didnt hahaha
Did you even read my posts before responding?
I never said anything about hoping for anything. All i was saying is that its possible that if it happened that it could turn out to be a good thing in the future. There is no way to know unless it happens(I hope it doesnt).
The point i was trying to get across in my first post was that it's just arrogant ignorance and simple minded to think you know the answer to the op's question, because no one does.
Cub, I think we're kinda on the same page here
I think its highly unlikely that a collapse would end up being a good thing looking back on the whole situation, but I do understand the fact that there is no way to know for sure how things will turn out in the future no matter how likely the predicted outcome is.
The following users like this post: oucub23
I see no scenario where we end up better. We're more entitled than ever before. We blame capitalism and rich people for all the ills of the world. I see no path to a better system.
Are you talking about economically better, behaviorally better, or more happy?
Government's expanding have led to more war. This is pretty much like the belief that spending ended the Great Depression. Which is completely untrue.
http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=2188
Europe has basically had most of their economies collapse in recent years which is why we've had certain uprisings in various countries over the last few years. Yet we haven't seen war enter the minds of a single European Country. You want to know why? Because it would mean spending more and taxing more and killing it's own citizens and other citizens instead of really solving the problems they have.
Yes, there are reasonable ways to know what happens to societies that collapse economically….. We have seen plenty of examples in human history….
The outcomes are never good for virtually all.
Sometimes great wars where many million come out of the desperation of a collapse.
If we go down so does the rest of the world.
In the environment of economic collapsed we have seen some of the world’s greatest tyrants emerges as false saviors.
Furthermore we don’t want an economic collapse with what we have in the White House right now.
Knowing the story of the Weimar Republic and what it set the stage for should be enough to educate any wise person by enough to know that wanting an economic collapse of any type is honestly as extremely stupid as it can get!
The actual collapse will only happen when probably China decides to go away from the US as it's reserve currency, which it's already setting up to do. It's set up currency trade agreements with Russia, Brazil, UAE, Turkey, ****an, and Australia in the last couple of years. My guess is that people will simply move to China as the world's currency reserve when the US spends itself into oblivion. And it'll happen a lot faster than most realize.
Ok miss cleo
Read post #12 and you'll understand my perspective
Im talking about the big picture, not just the few years after such an event
Who said they wanted an economic collapse? the guy in the video?
i didnt watch it
No, you missed when you said “First of all, theres no way to know unless it happens”
We are talking about an economic collapse and there are reasonable ways to know…
The rest of my post was not really directed at you, hence the separate paragraph.
Last edited by OU48A; 01-27-2013 at 02:04 PM.
If the economy collapsed it would make the "Greatest Recession Since the Depression" look like a thriving economy...
It would be a world wide recession...if not depression...
15% unemployment, if not worse...
More bankruptcies than sand grains on Waikiki beach
It would cripple the economy for a decade or more...
Nobody in their right mind would want to live through this
My fear is that the slight tax rate increases along with probably heavy spending cuts will have us walking the tightrope of another mild recession....and if we have another mild recession we won't have revenue streams available to slow the debt's relentless climb...
We don't want a recession....much less a collapse...
The following users like this post: oucub23
No miss cleo, you missed when you ****umed you could predict the future,No, you missed when you said “First of all, theres no way to know unless it happens”
We are talking about an economic collapse and there are reasonable ways to know…
The rest of my post was not really directed at you, hence the separate paragraph.
Of course the immediate effects would be bad, but im not talking about that.
I'm saying thats its possible that if it happens it could end up being seen as a good thing many years from now, maybe a turning point or something. i would say that its unlikely but to say its not possible is insane.
I already went over all this **** earlier in the thread
There is a possibility that it could be looked at in a good light...but the loss of economic and citizen confidence would make it unbelievably costly...
You can look at the economic calamity’s of past society’s and develop a pretty clear picture of what would happen in the event of an economic collapse. That’s where you are wrong. To not know this is to not understand human history!
Because this would very seriously impact the entire developed world it would be a very long time (decades) before anything resembling good was seen.
China's teetering right now. They don't have to dump the dollar--all they have to do is fall over. They aren't going to dump the dollar. That would only hasten their collapse.
China is far from collapse. The US is a lot closer to collapse than China. Now is China doing everything right? Hell no, but they are arguably the best economy in the world right now if you look at the real numbers.
Their growth isn't real. They're riding an infrastructure bubble at least as large as our currency bubble. The truth is they're as dependent on us as we are on them--maybe more.
So you say I'm wrong then you go on to agree with me?
I never specifically said how long it would take for it to be seen in a good light, I clearly stated it would be a long time before it could possibly be seen as a good thing
Would the gilded age have been possible without the civil war?
Would the greatest generation have existed if not for the Great Depression?
Like Twain, the rumors of the death of our economy have been greatly exaggerated.
When we have leaders so adept at kicking the can down the road this country will never fail.
You are both wrong and right in my view.
Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it ...
It’s smart to learn from other society’s mistakes, they offer us a reasonable picture of what we could face in the event of an economic collapse.
There is a way to reasonably know most of the major consequences without it happening.
Whoa. Ummm...Money or Currency =/= Economy.
Seems nobody in this discussion is making that fundamental distinction in this discussion. Currency is only one factor among many in the economy.
But to address currency first: No other currency is poised to take the reigns in the foreseeable future ........ UNLESS American businesses and people lose faith in their own currency. It's the only threat the $ really faces. But unfortunately, based on to whom we owe most of our debt (That would be, well, us), it's the most likely of any entity to call bull****. How likely? I'm not sure. If the American lower cl**** can't eat and the American middle cl**** loses everything they have, then the $ is done. If that happens, that will lead to a collapse of every currency in the 1st and 2nd worlds, and a major restructuring of government.
Oh...and don't discount the amount of influence the American Military has on global faith in the $.
The $ has, without question, no less than 10 years to remain the world's reserve currency...And while a lot can change in 10 years, I honestly don't see that changing for the next 25...anything past that is not really foreseeable.
As for the Economy, ****uming some sort of currency collapse takes place...Businesses need only to find a new currency to work with that will make the trading of their goods feasible in the long run. Yes, of course there would be breakdowns at first and production would take a major hit...but localized currency would emerge quickly and would, over time, repeat the same broadening that it did over the least 250 years.
I think people would be surprised at how diversified the resources are in today's age than they were even 100 years ago. A currency collapse would ultimately, over time, cost the über-über-wealthy the most as it has been the main way for them to retain resources and refuse them to the lower classes.
The following users like this post: SpankyNek
I have no debt and a wonderful garden.
I was fishing for such an enlightened answer with my earlier comment.
At least one guy gets it.
I think people would be surprised at how on the razor's edge most people exist in today's world. If the economy or currency collapses, we'll have people looting overnight and starving in a week. People are simply not prepared for even a 3 day snow storm anymore. People die when it gets hot or cold now. If the grocery trucks are interrupted? We see a breakdown and panic overnight. Good grief, we have a population in many cities that riots when they win a basketball game. No food? People will go bananas.
These are short term problems.
If you mean a large portion would die within 3-6 months, yea.
Define large.
Did you mean significant or majority?
I would guess tens of millions. I don't have the war games projections though.
There is no way that the US could make it through an economic collapse in our current welfare state. Although I think it inevitable at some point in the near future if we continue down the path we're on right now. It's not about politics anymore it's about simple math. What would happen if the people living off of the government currently were cut off overnight? What would happen if today's "poor"(which most have iPhones, flat screens, etc...) went back to 1930's poor (dirt floor, no food) overnight? What would happen to the crime rate? Murder rate? What would happen when 25% to 30% of the current jobs dried up? What happens when the largest employer (Federal government - 4.4 million employees) can't pay their employees anymore? All I have to say is you better have a plan and lots of ammo!
It's the first part of your paragraph that draws criticism. What happens to the US? Do you envision another government sweeping in (ala the collapse of the confederate states of America) or just an Anarchist state forever?
The difference today from 1929 is twofold. First, we, as a nation, are more short-sighted and dependent on government than our grandparents and great-grandparents were. Second, and probably more importantly, we've interwoven the global economy--if we go down, we're taking everyone with us.
Except there will still be demand, perhaps more of it, and the economic cycle will eventually right itself. I think the currency would even have a hard time collapsing, as there will be a market in ****ding devalued notes as they await stability.
You have far more faith than I do. I knew my grandfather, and the difference in his skill set and mine is huge--and I've got more skill to survive than most of the population.
I think it is this dependence upon the economy that makes any collapse quickly absorbed, with a rebound sure to follow.
I think people would be surprised at how much the $ is the fault for people living on razor's edge.
For the most part, people can only accrue desired resources by use of the $. Their skill set, however, is not valued enough by the $ to merit using their skill set to acquire more $s and thereby resources. The problem for the "welfare state" is not that they're entirely incompetent, it's that they are smart enough to realize that "****, I can get A,B,C paid for by the Gov't and do nothing all the while OR I can work my **** off 50 hours a week, pay for A,B,C and if I'm really really diligent I can maybe save up for D". That's a lot of work for not a lot of reward...Better to not work and save yourself the grief.
And while a currency collapse would certainly lead to major inefficiencies in the market, the market is not going to just stop working. Sure, the metropolitan areas are going to struggle for a bit, because they're going to need to reestablish efficiency...but wholesale, prolonged chaos is probably not reality. Farmers will still grow food, truck drivers will still deliver food, and grocery stores will still stock food. This goes for any market. The actual usage of products and services will suffer, which is definitely an actual hit to the economy, but an economic collapse means people just give up and stop producing or serving at all...that is highly unlikely.
A US economic collapse would most likely trigger a world collapse as it did in 1929-30's. Yes the ship would eventually right itself, but I was speaking more of the short term anarchy. If something suddenly happened today, at most there are 3 days of food in grocery stores. If there was a slow collapse, when people started seeing the writing on the wall, the hording would start to drive up the price of food, gas, meds, which will just compound the problem. Public civility would start breaking down fast. People that don't have would start trying to take from those that do. Crime would skyrocket. It would start and be worse in the larger cities where a lot of people are dependent on government providing for them. It would then start to filter out to the out lying rural areas. It would most definitely not be a pretty picture over all for anyone, and a lot would not live it through it. A lot of economist think rather than a gradual slow fail it will be a sharp crash, which will be really bad. I have no idea what, how, or even if this will happen, but people that are not prepared will not fair well if it does.
Was the Holocaust a good thing?
The problem usually stems from trying to rescue us. Increasing the money supply would probably happen--this makes it all worth less, and Joe the trucker decides to go shoot a deer or some birds for dinner rather than showing up to drive. After all, he can't make enough money driving the truck to pay for meat for the family, and he has to feed the kids. This is where the tipping point happens.
Perhaps we have different ideas on what will happen in urban areas, or you are harshly understating 'struggle a bit.' A Katrina like breakdown in services spread across a 2 year period? We're talking chaos.
It won't take 2 years for something like that. A U.S. wide breakdown like Katrina or Sandy, everything would degenerate very very quickly. I'd give it 3 days before the urban areas started looting and pillaging. Maybe a week or two for the outlying rural areas. After that, you'll wish you had an AR-15!
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
