Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

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  1. #1
    KCRuf/Nek's Avatar
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    Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

    Tornadoes last night to the east of here maybe 90 miles. Not huge but they tore shit up. It's supposed to be an active season.

  2. #2
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Wednesday April 2 could be an interesting day...?

    Watch the OKC TV forecast for this time period.

  3. #3
    McRib's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    Wednesday April 2 could be an interesting day...?

    Watch the OKC TV forecast for this time period.
    1. Ugh it feels like this is starting really early.

    2. Damn you for making us watch them.

  4. #4
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    1. Ugh it feels like this is starting really early.

    2. Damn you for making us watch them.
    Well the TV folks do know more than I....usually.
    Its been a very quite year to date. This would not be statistically early.

    This is just another aspect of our little life’s on the prairie that can humble anyone.

    PS: Just trying to say...... stay inform for your own well being.
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  5. #5
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    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    Well the TV folks do know more than I....usually.
    Its been a very quite year to date. This would not be statistically early.

    This is just another aspect of our little life’s on the prairie that can humble anyone.

    PS: Just trying to say...... stay inform for your own well being.
    I will be, thank you. I just hate that our local weather guys are our only choice in times like this.
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    I don't know about you but I live for Mike Morgan's sparkly leotard tie.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by silverwheels View Post
    I don't know about you but I live for Mike Morgan's sparkly leotard tie.
    If you turn the tv on and he's wearing one, you know you need to head for shelter.

  8. #8
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    Originally Posted by freeeewilly66 View Post
    If you turn the tv on and he's wearing one, you know you need to head for shelter.
    Or outside to look for the thing, beer in hand.
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  9. #9
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    I will be, thank you. I just hate that our local weather guys are our only choice in times like this.
    Actually they are not the only option for local weather coverage.

    Check this out and get to know it very well....
    They do a great job.... but their site is slow when we are experiencing an event.... At that point and time your TV folks are still the best bet for information.
    I have this book marked and have found its a great place to go for the latest information about the set up in the hours before the storms form.
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/

  10. #10
    http://www.oklahomaweathertracker.co....nN6kXfEe.dpbs

    you might also follow this guy on twitter and FB. I'm not exactly sure who he is or what his story is, but he has been more accurate and honest with his weather the last 9 months or so that I have followed him than the TV guys. He's storm chaser so when the shit is actually hitting the fan I don't know what he will be like because he may be somewhere's else.

    but his 9day on twitter and FB are great. He's very in depth, honest and he's not afraid to say he missed it and explain why. Mostly though he's really really good. If a storm system changes quickly he'll tweet it out and not try to keep forecasting what he predicted so as not to sound wrong.

    give the young dude a try.
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  11. #11
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    Originally Posted by silverwheels View Post
    I don't know about you but I live for Mike Morgan's sparkly leotard tie.
    How can you see it when you've been told to leave your house?
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  12. #12
    Stinger_1066's Avatar
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    So is April 2nd a "weather aware" day?

  13. #13
    SoonerDan74012's Avatar
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    I guess the ingredients are coming together for an early outbreak on Wednesday???

  14. #14
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    C'mon really? I thought we had a few more weeks to enjoy peace.


    Banging in OKC!
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  15. #15
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    Originally Posted by metes View Post
    C'mon really? I thought we had a few more weeks to enjoy peace.


    Banging in OKC!
    Or at least one more snow storm, maybe a dip to -10 degrees.

  16. #16
    Monthly tornado data
    Oklahoma avg of 4 per month in March (0 this year)
    April 11.7
    May 22.0
    June 7.08
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=torna...-monthlyannual
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  17. #17
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    I enjoy this stuff. If we do get naders let's just hope and pray that they are in a field and stay there! Bring on the naders!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  18. #18
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  19. #19
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    These people^ do a great job


    This is a Severe Weather Briefing: Monday March 31, 2014 from the Norman National Weather Service office

    “Don't be scared, be prepared”

  20. #20
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    Bring it.
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  21. #21
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    Originally Posted by wendyaveli View Post
    I enjoy this stuff. If we do get naders let's just hope and pray that they are in a field and stay there! Bring on the naders!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I love you Wen, but not the cutsie names for these things. One killed my friend and her baby, tornado isn't even bad enough. It should have a GRRRRR and an ugly face in the name

  22. #22
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    I love you Wen, but not the cutsie names for these things. One killed my friend and her baby, tornado isn't even bad enough. It should have a GRRRRR and an ugly face in the name
    I agree. Is having anxiety that it will happen again this year normal and how many t-nado seasons should I expect to feel this way.
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  23. #23
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    Originally Posted by Coach View Post
    I agree. Is having anxiety that it will happen again this year normal and how many t-nado seasons should I expect to feel this way.
    They have drugs for that.

  24. #24
    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    They have drugs for that.
    I don't do drugs. I think rib should offer her counseling services.
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  25. #25
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    Originally Posted by Coach View Post
    I don't do drugs. I think rib should offer her counseling services.
    she's sworn off coaches

  26. #26
    Originally Posted by StroudSooner View Post
    she's sworn off coaches
    Well I'm currently not a coach.

  27. #27
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    Sorry and Coach! I just like watching them in a field (in hopes it doesn't go anywhere). Much love to you both.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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  28. #28
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    Originally Posted by wendyaveli View Post
    Sorry and Coach! I just like watching them in a field (in hopes it doesn't go anywhere). Much love to you both.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    They are beautiful and wondrous in a an open field where nothing and no one is in danger, I agree. Why can't we just fence them in?!!
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  29. #29
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    They are beautiful and wondrous in a an open field where nothing and no one is in danger, I agree. Why can't we just fence them in?!!
    We can just build a big wall. Science tells me so.
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  30. #30
    SoonerAmongThePack's Avatar
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    Kick the tires and light the fires big daddy, it's spring time in OKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKLAHOMAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
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  31. #31
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    They are beautiful and wondrous in a an open field where nothing and no one is in danger, I agree. Why can't we just fence them in?!!
    I still think you should come and chase with me and be my photographer.
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  32. #32
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    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    I still think you should come and chase with me and be my photographer.
    For you, I would
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  33. #33
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    I love you Wen, but not the cutsie names for these things. One killed my friend and her baby, tornado isn't even bad enough. It should have a GRRRRR and an ugly face in the name
    I remember we talked about that. I now have the sads.

  34. #34
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    For you, I would
    -_-
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  35. #35
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    Originally Posted by SirPrize View Post
    I remember we talked about that. I now have the sads.
    She left a very beautiful legacy, not only in her other child, but in all the kids she worked with.
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  36. #36
    Stinger_1066's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Coach View Post
    Well I'm currently not a coach.
    Golf?

  37. #37
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    Curious if the prolonged winter and last season's craziness has led the local TV guys into hype machine overdrive.

    This setup has some potent ingredients but it's nothing out of the ordinary for spring-time in Oklahoma.

  38. #38
    Stinger_1066's Avatar
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    Have they backed on of the predictions of doomsday happening tomorrow?

  39. #39
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    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    Curious if the prolonged winter and last season's craziness has led the local TV guys into hype machine overdrive.

    This setup has some potent ingredients but it's nothing out of the ordinary for spring-time in Oklahoma.
    Its like Opening Day for them. They get to fire up the helicopters and storm chasing vehicles and whatnot. They're like kids on Christmas morning.
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  40. #40
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    Curious if the prolonged winter and last season's craziness has led the local TV guys into hype machine overdrive.
    We have 3 members from my peer team in Chicago in town this week. We told them last night to not watch the local news or they'll be freaked out. 2 out of the 3 listened. Just told them if you see me running it's time to freak out otherwise don't worry about it.
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  41. #41
    I've been reading The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver which is a book about forecasting in different fields such as economics, sports, and meteorology.

    I just finished the chapter on meteorology. Part of it talks about how accurate the forecasts are for the national weather service and the weather channel. But the local news stations tend to be pretty erratic. For example, when a station in KC predicted 100% chance of rain, it ended up not raining about 30% of the time.

  42. #42
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    Originally Posted by freeeewilly66 View Post
    I've been reading The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver which is a book about forecasting in different fields such as economics, sports, and meteorology.

    I just finished the chapter on meteorology. Part of it talks about how accurate the forecasts are for the national weather service and the weather channel. But the local news stations tend to be pretty erratic. For example, when a station in KC predicted 100% chance of rain, it ended up not raining about 30% of the time.
    viewership over science most of the time...

  43. #43
    Originally Posted by StroudSooner View Post
    viewership over science most of the time...
    Yep. There was even a quote in it from a local news station rep that essentially said they value presentation skills over accuracy with their TV meteorologists.
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  44. #44
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  45. #45
    SoonerDan74012's Avatar
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    http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-...r-tracker-page

    TOR:CON Index for Wednesday and Thursday from the severe weather guy on the Weather Channel.

    Wednesday, April 2

    Scattered severe thunderstorms in central and southern Missouri; southern Illinois; western Kentucky; northern and western Arkansas; southeast and south-central Kansas; southwestern, central, and eastern Oklahoma; north-central and northeast Texas (about as far south as San Angelo in central Texas.)
    TOR:CON:
    AR north, west - 3
    IL south - 3
    KS southeast - 4
    KS south-central - 3 to 4
    KY extreme west - 2 to 3
    MO central, south - 4
    OK southwest, central, east - 4
    TX north-central - 3
    TX northeast and central near San Angelo - 2 to 3
    Thursday, April 3

    Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak likely in extreme southeast Kansas; central and southern Missouri; southern half of Illinois; southern third of Indiana; western and central Kentucky; west half of Tennessee; north and west-central Mississippi; northern and western Louisiana; east Texas from I-35 east and south to San Antonio and Victoria; and eastern Oklahoma. TOR:CON - 5 central and southern MO, southern IL; 4 in AR, eastern OK, southeast KS; 3 in northeast TX, northwest LA; 2 to 3 rest of mentioned area
    TOR:CON:
    AR - 4
    IL south half - 5
    IN south - 3
    KS southeast - 4
    KY west - 3
    KY central - 2 to 3
    LA northwest - 3
    LA northeast, southwest - 2 to 3
    MO central, south - 5
    MS north, west-central - 2 to 3
    OK east - 4
    TN west half - 2 to 3
    TX northeast - 3
    TX rest of area from I-35 east - 2 to 3

  46. #46
    SoonerAmongThePack's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by freeeewilly66 View Post
    I've been reading The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver which is a book about forecasting in different fields such as economics, sports, and meteorology.

    I just finished the chapter on meteorology. Part of it talks about how accurate the forecasts are for the national weather service and the weather channel. But the local news stations tend to be pretty erratic. For example, when a station in KC predicted 100% chance of rain, it ended up not raining about 30% of the time.
    Pretty on point. Though TWC is about ratings now and don't value the actual science; when they pulled the NWS forecast as a base (up until the early 2000s I think), they were pretty good.

    Which is why you always use the NWS. It actually is all about science.

  47. #47
    kbsooner's Avatar
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    http://www.okctalk.com/weather/

    This is a good one too with several meterologists participating...

  48. #48
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    SPC Slight Risk for tomorrow; threat for supercells with large hail and isolated tornado just W of I-35 along the dryline tomorrow afternoon. Storms that fire there may congeal into a forward moving MCS through NE OK tomorrow.

    So OKC peeps, eyes to the sky for spring time fun of the tornado variety, and Tulsa...more of a damaging wind/large hail threat.

    If I were chasing, I'd be somewhere in this black circle after lunch tomorrow.

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  49. #49
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    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post


    SPC Slight Risk for tomorrow; threat for supercells with large hail and isolated tornado just W of I-35 along the dryline tomorrow afternoon. Storms that fire there may congeal into a forward moving MCS through NE OK tomorrow.

    So OKC peeps, eyes to the sky for spring time fun of the tornado variety, and Tulsa...more of a damaging wind/large hail threat.

    If I were chasing, I'd be somewhere in this black circle after lunch tomorrow.

    Hey SATP, what is the outlook for Sunday afternoon in the area between Ft. Worth and Denton, TX? I plan to be at the NASCAR race at Texas Motor Speedway. I'd like to know that odds of me getting wet and the race being delayed. TIA.

  50. #50
    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    Hey SATP, what is the outlook for Sunday afternoon in the area between Ft. Worth and Denton, TX? I plan to be at the NASCAR race at Texas Motor Speedway. I'd like to know that odds of me getting wet and the race being delayed. TIA.
    Leave the girlfriend at home with me and I'll tell you her odds of getting wet.... 100%
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