Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

Posted 1426 day(s) ago by KCRuf/Nek1431910 Views 16167 Replies
Results 12,251 to 12,300 of 16168
  1. #12251
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    just take enough clothes to last thru Monday.

  2. #12252
    Mjcpr's Avatar
    Posts
    6,141
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Tulsa, OK

    Originally Posted by Wailer View Post
    just take enough clothes to last thru Monday.
    Gross.
    The following users like this post: brokebacksooner


  3. #12253
    McRib's Avatar
    Posts
    42,125
    Join Date
    Oct 2011


  4. #12254
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    2 users like 87sooner's post: McRib, pphilfran


  5. #12255
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    I have some tartar sauce and toothpicks if you need any.

  6. #12256
    Everyone store up on your liquor just in case

  7. #12257
    A record low of -3 was set Sat morning for OKC
    There is a legit chance of setting a record high tomorrow. Record of 77. Forecast high around 75.
    2 users like pphilfran's post: McRib, SoonerVikeThunder


  8. #12258
    McRib's Avatar
    Posts
    42,125
    Join Date
    Oct 2011

    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    Yes sir, it's my favorite.

  9. #12259
    McRib's Avatar
    Posts
    42,125
    Join Date
    Oct 2011

    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    A record low of -3 was set Sat morning for OKC
    There is a legit chance of setting a record high tomorrow. Record of 77. Forecast high around 75.
    We are laying to rest an 11 year old tomorrow and doing a balloon release - beautiful weather will be appreciated.
    The following users like this post: Oldnslo


  10. #12260
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    You're not cooking her your famous and amazing steaks?

  11. #12261
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    We are laying to rest an 11 year old tomorrow and doing a balloon release - beautiful weather will be appreciated.
    You should have it. Though sw wind gust to 20 should be expected
    The following users like this post: McRib


  12. #12262
    McRib's Avatar
    Posts
    42,125
    Join Date
    Oct 2011

    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    You should have it. Though sw wind gust to 20 should be expected
    That will be a good balloon-carrying wind.
    The following users like this post: pphilfran


  13. #12263
    Newest models pushing the freezing line farther NW. Could spare OKC
    7 users like chsguy2013's post: Bob, Crazyivan, OrionJc, OUDoc, RedStripe, SoonerSean03, SoonerVikeThunder


  14. #12264
    Mjcpr's Avatar
    Posts
    6,141
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Tulsa, OK

    Why can't we have nice things.....like snow?
    The following users like this post: xman


  15. #12265
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Newest models pushing the freezing line farther NW. Could spare OKC


    The following users like this post: oucub23


  16. #12266
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Newest models pushing the freezing line farther NW. Could spare OKC
    Would you say, with recent historical experience as your guide, that these models are more like Lee Corso or less like Lee Corso?

  17. #12267
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    Would you say, with recent historical experience as your guide, that these models are more like Lee Corso or less like Lee Corso?
    GFS is like Lee Corso. Euro is more like Kirk Herbstreit. NAM is more like Danny Kannell, it has an opinion on some things, but also overdoes it
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  18. #12268
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    GFS is like Lee Corso. Euro is more like Kirk Herbstreit. NAM is more like Danny Kannell, it has an opinion on some things, but also overdoes it
    So what does GFS say? I'll then believe the opposite.

  19. #12269
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    So what does GFS say? I'll then believe the opposite.
    It's the warmest. Has basically nothing in OK but rain.
    The following users like this post: oucub23


  20. #12270
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    It's the warmest. Has basically nothing in OK but rain.
    DANG IT!!!! In that case it looks like it will be record frigid temps with freezing rain then snow.

  21. #12271
    GFS gets a bad rap. Truth is both the Euro and GFS have known to be out to lunch a few times, and both have handled certain events with uncanny accuracy. The GFS has seen some major tweaking in the last couple of years to its algorthims and is much better than years past.

    The key is model consistency and agreement. I have seen way to many people put too much stock in the Euro.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  22. #12272
    ChpThril's Avatar
    Posts
    14,438
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Nearest Lake Available

    GFS, EURO, NAM .... wtf is this... a foreign currency convention?
    2 users like ChpThril's post: DirtyBob, oucub23

    Last edited by ChpThril; January 10th, 2017 at 10:31 PM.

  23. #12273


    NWS has the freezing line still a little south of OKC as of 2pm. A little different than what I saw on ch4 today at noon.

  24. #12274
    I liked Emily Sutton's Oreo cookie explanation best.

  25. #12275
    kingswitz's Avatar
    Posts
    5,511
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Norman, USA

    Originally Posted by Mississippi Sooner View Post
    I liked Emily Sutton's Oreo cookie explanation best.
    She lost me on the oreo thins... Then...boobs.... and I was done.
    6 users like kingswitz's post: chsguy2013, jdizzle, Mississippi Sooner, oucub23, pphilfran, Wailer


  26. #12276
    The GFS continues to track the upper level a bit further west and north. For the GFS this has been a trend for the last 48 hrs. It wants to pull the system north quicker and put the colder air further north. Not sure how the Euro is handling it, but based on current trends from the GFS I see this more of a KS storm and perhaps bits of NW OK.

    Central OK could be spared heaviest ice, but whoever does see ice could see a lot. This will be catastrophic storm somewhere, just not thinking OKC at the moment.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  27. #12277
    OU48A's Avatar
    Posts
    30,283
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Norman

    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    This will be catastrophic storm somewhere.
    A true catastrophic ice storm is on a scale that probably very few of us have ever seen….
    It can take several months to restore full power and cause significant structural damage.

  28. #12278
    Channel 9 this morning had about 2/3 of the state covered in ice - on a line from the SW corner up to the NE. Channel 4 this evening had it more north of OKC but said we'd see at least some ice (and tons of rain).

    It's going to be an awful mess wherever the ice storm sets down.
    2 users like SoonerSean03's post: ekeithly, OU48A


  29. #12279
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    A true catastrophic ice storm is on a scale that probably very few of us have ever seen….
    It can take several months to restore full power and cause significant structural damage.
    Right now GFS (again I don't have access to the Euro) is showing a large swath of 2 in. + ice totals across most of KS. The only question, if a forecast like this verifies, is how much is sleet vs freezing rain. The GFS, regardless of location, has mantained high moisture content and where ever the bullseye, keeps showing 2 in. totals over a very large region.

    If the amounts verify, and it falls as freezing rain you are looking at a storm capable of equaling the 2007 ice storm. Widespread collapse of the electrical infrastructure would be expected. And it would not be localized. I think OK misses the worst, but I would not want to be in KS. And if the colder scenario plays out, then OKC would have a lot of moisture for a winter system like this to play with.

    Edit - Looking at the models again I would say 1.5 in covers large swaths of KS with fairly decent sized localized amounts of 2 inches. This is on par with the 2007 ice storm.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  30. #12280
    00Z GFS update - the GFS continues the NW trend of the low, with it cutting north slightly further west. Not a huge shift from 18Z, but the trend continues.

    GFS keeps OKC wet. NW Oklahoma around Woodward, maybe east to Enid, looking at half inch to an inch of ice accumulations. Still a potent ice storm if it happens.

    KS, especially NW regions still on track for a major ice storm. Easily in the 1.5+ range for most areas. Widespread 2 inches in localized amounts.

    I personally am rooting for continued shift west of the storm track. It brings the storm closer to the Denver MSA and would put the area into a possible up slope snow event for the front range, with lots of moisture. As of right now SE CO is in play for good snowstorm.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  31. #12281
    my generator wouldn't start today..
    that's what i get for loaning it out....
    2 users like 87sooner's post: ImTheDude, OU48A


  32. #12282
    Tulsa area looks to be spared from anything significant.
    The following users like this post: Strangers


  33. #12283
    Weather.gov seems to be, at least moderately, favoring the OKC metro. Their forecast for Edmond is for a low of around 30 Thursday overnight into Friday with rain/freezing rain. But then a high Friday of 39. For Norman the overnight low is 32 and the day time high Friday is 36.

    If those temps turn out to be accurate maybe we'll avoid the worst of the ice. Temps in the low 40's on Saturday too.

  34. #12284
    [QUOTE=ekeithly;3227056]Right now GFS (again I don't have access to the Euro) is showing a large swath of 2 in. + ice totals across most of KS. The only question, if a forecast like this verifies, is how much is sleet vs freezing rain. The GFS, regardless of location, has mantained high moisture content and where ever the bullseye, keeps showing 2 in. totals over a very large region.

    If the amounts verify, and it falls as freezing rain you are looking at a storm capable of equaling the 2007 ice storm. Widespread collapse of the electrical infrastructure would be expected. And it would not be localized. I think OK misses the worst, but I would not want to be in KS. And if the colder scenario plays out, then OKC would have a lot of moisture for a winter system like this to play with.


    Been nice knowing you Kansas, enjoy your roaming herds of woolly mammoth.
    The following users like this post: Seabass


  35. #12285
    This from a firm who does forecasts for commodity brokers

    The following users like this post: ImTheDude


  36. #12286
    mgsooner's Avatar
    Posts
    12,919
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Tallsa

    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my generator wouldn't start today..
    that's what i get for loaning it out....
    You probably just haven't been maintaining it properly...

  37. #12287
    Originally Posted by mgsooner View Post
    You probably just haven't been maintaining it properly...
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    The following users like this post: ultimatesooner


  38. #12288
    OU48A's Avatar
    Posts
    30,283
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Norman

    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my generator wouldn't start today..
    that's what i get for loaning it out....
    Using Sta-Bil Fuel treatment and keeping a full can starter fluid is always a good idea IMHO.

    Somebody told me they knew of some retired people that were going to leave Enid tomorrow and drive to Dallas to be with their kids for a few days
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    I would drain the E10

  39. #12289
    DirtyBob's Avatar
    Posts
    4,895
    Join Date
    Jan 2015
    Location
    Warwick, RI

    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    Rookie mistake. E10 is like the cut off for what you can use in generators. That's the case with my Honda generator at least

  40. #12290
    OU48A's Avatar
    Posts
    30,283
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Norman

    On this storm… I would prepare for the very worst, but hope for something better…. It’s looking colder with more ice.
    This is when I’m glad I have underground utilities. I wish we would burry more of our electrical distribution system.
    The following users like this post: SoonerVikeThunder


  41. #12291
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    Using Sta-Bil Fuel treatment and keeping a full can starter fluid is always a good idea IMHO.

    Somebody told me they knew of some retired people that were going to leave Enid tomorrow and drive to Dallas to be with their kids for a few days

    I would drain the E10
    when he returned the generator ....the tank was empty.......i figured that was good enuf...
    i probly forgot to drain the carb tho....

  42. #12292
    So Tulsa is in the clear? Cool beans.

  43. #12293
    mgsooner's Avatar
    Posts
    12,919
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Tallsa

    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    Your brother in law sounds like a real dumbazzz....
    2 users like mgsooner's post: DirtyBob, oorah_okie


  44. #12294
    OU48A's Avatar
    Posts
    30,283
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Norman

    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    when he returned the generator ....the tank was empty.......i figured that was good enuf...
    i probly forgot to drain the carb tho....
    I have usually been able to burn something like E10 out by using some starter fluid to get the unit started.
    Are you on NG / propane…. if so and if you’re staying you might look into a Generac Generator given the fact that you live out in the country.
    The following users like this post: DirtyBob


  45. #12295
    When we built our house we stubbed out for a NG generator. But of course we've never actually acquired and installed one.

    Every storm like this the wife points that out. So far so good but damn is it going to suck if we lose power before I break down and finally get the generator.
    The following users like this post: DirtyBob


  46. #12296
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    I have usually been able to burn something like E10 out by using some starter fluid to get the unit started.
    Are you on NG / propane…. if so and if you’re staying you might look into a Generac Generator given the fact that you live out in the country.
    i'm on propane....
    my gas powered john deere has been sufficient for a couple days of use here and there....
    i have friends with generacs who live farther off the grid .....makes sense if you're out of power for weeks at a time...
    The following users like this post: DirtyBob


  47. #12297
    06Z Update-

    Just saw the NWS graphic this morning. They are calling for 1/4 to 1/2 inch accumulations on the NW side of the metro. The 06Z NAM shows a solid band of 1/2 to 1/4 inch through Oklahoma County. I would expect at least some icing Friday. GFS continues to keep ice well north of the 1-44 corridor. Tulsa looks to be just south of ice in the NAM. These totals are nothing to sneeze at.

    Winter storm of doom still has its eyes set on western KS. In addition to widesread 1-2 inch ice accumulations they could be looking at 1-2 feet of snow right behind it.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  48. #12298
    Mjcpr's Avatar
    Posts
    6,141
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Tulsa, OK

    Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
    This from a firm who does forecasts for commodity brokers

    RIP Kansas, we hardly knew ye.
    2 users like Mjcpr's post: DirtyBob, Stinger_1066


  49. #12299
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    RIP Kansas, we hardly knew ye.

  50. #12300
    generator started...
    just gotta fill up all my gas cans ...
    2 users like 87sooner's post: DirtyBob, OU48A


Similar Threads

  1. Severe Weather - Oklahoma Edition
    By Bruno Gianelli in forum The Pub
    Replies: 7291
    Last Post: April 1st, 2014, 05:50 PM