Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

Posted 1159 day(s) ago by KCRuf/Nek872079 Views 14479 Replies
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  1. #12401
    This from a firm who does forecasts for commodity brokers

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  2. #12402
    mgsooner's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my generator wouldn't start today..
    that's what i get for loaning it out....
    You probably just haven't been maintaining it properly...

  3. #12403
    Originally Posted by mgsooner View Post
    You probably just haven't been maintaining it properly...
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
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  4. #12404
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    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my generator wouldn't start today..
    that's what i get for loaning it out....
    Using Sta-Bil Fuel treatment and keeping a full can starter fluid is always a good idea IMHO.

    Somebody told me they knew of some retired people that were going to leave Enid tomorrow and drive to Dallas to be with their kids for a few days
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    I would drain the E10

  5. #12405
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    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    Rookie mistake. E10 is like the cut off for what you can use in generators. That's the case with my Honda generator at least

  6. #12406
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    On this storm… I would prepare for the very worst, but hope for something better…. It’s looking colder with more ice.
    This is when I’m glad I have underground utilities. I wish we would burry more of our electrical distribution system.
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  7. #12407
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    Using Sta-Bil Fuel treatment and keeping a full can starter fluid is always a good idea IMHO.

    Somebody told me they knew of some retired people that were going to leave Enid tomorrow and drive to Dallas to be with their kids for a few days

    I would drain the E10
    when he returned the generator ....the tank was empty.......i figured that was good enuf...
    i probly forgot to drain the carb tho....

  8. #12408
    So Tulsa is in the clear? Cool beans.

  9. #12409
    mgsooner's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    my brother in law put e10 gas in it ....i forgot to tell him to use 100% gas...
    Your brother in law sounds like a real dumbazzz....
    2 users like mgsooner's post: DirtyBob, oorah_okie


  10. #12410
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    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    when he returned the generator ....the tank was empty.......i figured that was good enuf...
    i probly forgot to drain the carb tho....
    I have usually been able to burn something like E10 out by using some starter fluid to get the unit started.
    Are you on NG / propane…. if so and if you’re staying you might look into a Generac Generator given the fact that you live out in the country.
    The following users like this post: DirtyBob


  11. #12411
    When we built our house we stubbed out for a NG generator. But of course we've never actually acquired and installed one.

    Every storm like this the wife points that out. So far so good but damn is it going to suck if we lose power before I break down and finally get the generator.
    The following users like this post: DirtyBob


  12. #12412
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    I have usually been able to burn something like E10 out by using some starter fluid to get the unit started.
    Are you on NG / propane…. if so and if you’re staying you might look into a Generac Generator given the fact that you live out in the country.
    i'm on propane....
    my gas powered john deere has been sufficient for a couple days of use here and there....
    i have friends with generacs who live farther off the grid .....makes sense if you're out of power for weeks at a time...
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  13. #12413
    06Z Update-

    Just saw the NWS graphic this morning. They are calling for 1/4 to 1/2 inch accumulations on the NW side of the metro. The 06Z NAM shows a solid band of 1/2 to 1/4 inch through Oklahoma County. I would expect at least some icing Friday. GFS continues to keep ice well north of the 1-44 corridor. Tulsa looks to be just south of ice in the NAM. These totals are nothing to sneeze at.

    Winter storm of doom still has its eyes set on western KS. In addition to widesread 1-2 inch ice accumulations they could be looking at 1-2 feet of snow right behind it.
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  14. #12414
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    Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
    This from a firm who does forecasts for commodity brokers

    RIP Kansas, we hardly knew ye.
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  15. #12415
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    RIP Kansas, we hardly knew ye.

  16. #12416
    generator started...
    just gotta fill up all my gas cans ...
    2 users like 87sooner's post: DirtyBob, OU48A


  17. #12417
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    RIP Kansas, we hardly knew ye.
    That’s mostly in small town rural western KS where people are generally winter resilient and where many have alternative sources of heat and power.

    I’m glad I don’t live there anymore.

  18. #12418
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    That’s mostly in small town rural western KS where people are generally winter resilient and where many have alternative sources of heat and power.

    I’m glad I don’t live there anymore.
    Plus I don't think there is a single tree out there to be downed by any puny ice storm.

  19. #12419
    Supposed to drive from Dallas to Canyon, TX on Saturday morning, then returning that night...yay or nay?

    That last model doesn't look too bad.

  20. #12420
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    Plus I don't think there is a single tree out there to be downed by any puny ice storm.
    In many places that’s completely true…..
    One other thing that will help some is their electrical system is continually tested by very high winds…. The wind will fine the weaker spots as they occur rather than the ice finding them all in one day.
    But it will still be very bad…. Freezing rain followed by a deep wind driven snow will kill a lot of cattle and wild life.

  21. #12421
    To me, western KS is some of the roughest, most forlorn, cold, nasty, depressing, ugly, windy, cactussy, rocky outcropped, savage, inhumane ground in the country. Add an ice storm to it and you barely even notice.
    3 users like Bustarime's post: Morningwood, Oldnslo, Stinger_1066


  22. #12422

  23. #12423
    Tulsa update please.

  24. #12424
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ptlandman View Post
    Tulsa update please.
    Nobody cares about us.
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  25. #12425
    western kansas > tulsa
    4 users like RedStripe's post: burnsyo, Fugue, hawkdriver, Mjcpr


  26. #12426
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    Nobody cares about us.
    They hate us cause they ain't us.
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  27. #12427
    Originally Posted by ptlandman View Post
    Tulsa update please.
    Rain and freezing rain before noon Friday. Lots of rain for the rest of the weekend. If temps drop a couple more degrees you could see significant icing Friday.

  28. #12428
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    Rain and freezing rain before noon Friday. Lots of rain for the rest of the weekend. If temps drop a couple more degrees you could see significant icing Friday.
    I feel like this is an Always Save version of the forecast. Where's our graphs and color shaded maps?

  29. #12429
    Stinger_1066's Avatar
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    Sounds like my wife might get a 4 day weekend. Her principal says he doubts school will be in session on Friday, and Monday is the MLK holiday.
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  30. #12430
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    I feel like this is an Always Save version of the forecast. Where's our graphs and color shaded maps?
    2 users like pphilfran's post: Mjcpr, Oldnslo


  31. #12431
    Tulsa might not get any freezing rain. Latest models keeping the freezing line just to the NW. Models do usually are warmer temperature wise on a shallow cold front like this, but I'll stick with them not being off by much. Ultimately, I trust the Euro more than the GFS in terms of placement of the low just based on previous performances (like last weekend, and then the storm in Minnesota earlier this year) but the 12z Euro dumps 1.3 inches of freezing rain in OKC all falling in the wee hours of Saturday (like 1 am). Then it moves the freezing line back to the NW and has the rest fall as rain.


    Ultimately, placement of the low is still off on all the models, with the GFS moving the low faster and farther west and north while the Euro takes it over OK at a slower pace. NAM is also slower, although we're too far out for it to move it north.

  32. #12432
    [QUOTE=pphilfran;3227617][URL=http://s38.photobucket.com/user/pphilfran1/media/Mobile%20Uploads/2017

    Shoot, that's 32 hour old. I've already had 3 BM's. We need freshness!!

  33. #12433
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post

    Shoot, that's 32 hour old. I've already had 3 BM's. We need freshness!!
    Try some witch hazel wipes.
    2 users like oucub23's post: Crazyivan, gratefulRed


  34. #12434
    The comments to that article almost make me think there's hope for that state.

  35. #12435
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Tulsa might not get any freezing rain. Latest models keeping the freezing line just to the NW. Models do usually are warmer temperature wise on a shallow cold front like this, but I'll stick with them not being off by much. Ultimately, I trust the Euro more than the GFS in terms of placement of the low just based on previous performances (like last weekend, and then the storm in Minnesota earlier this year) but the 12z Euro dumps 1.3 inches of freezing rain in OKC all falling in the wee hours of Saturday (like 1 am). Then it moves the freezing line back to the NW and has the rest fall as rain.


    Ultimately, placement of the low is still off on all the models, with the GFS moving the low faster and farther west and north while the Euro takes it over OK at a slower pace. NAM is also slower, although we're too far out for it to move it north.
    Any projected wind speeds/gusts with this? More than 15 MPH?

  36. #12436
    Higher RES NAM models showing more freezing rain in the OKC area with the freezing line farther SE for Friday. I'm interested in tonight's runs when the system gets closer to land

    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    Any projected wind speeds/gusts with this? More than 15 MPH?


    Should be around 15. 10-15 mph will be common

  37. #12437
    [QUOTE=Crazyivan;3227687][QUOTE=pphilfran;3227617][URL=http://s38.photobucket.com/user/pphilfran1/media/Mobile%20Uploads/2017

    Shoot, that's 32 hour old. I've already had 3 BM's. We need freshness!![/QUOTE]

    Get some TP...Pile up a big dob of Instant Hand Sanitizer Gel..Apply to sphincter...

  38. #12438
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

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  39. #12439
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

  40. #12440
    Dammit.

    I hate ice so much. 2007 really ****ed with me being without power for a week in Norman.

    We are Cub' neighbors now so this one is going to be close. Starting to look like Edmond/OKC is going to get hammered with crippling ice whereas Moore/Norman could be completely spared.

    C'mon Newcastle. Be far enough south to avoid horrible weather ... for once, spare us God.
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  41. #12441
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

    Y'all fooked.

  42. #12442
    Tulsey gonna be in the rear with the gear, watching the power flashes to the west.
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  43. #12443
    I may drive down to Norman Thursday night and just hang out for 2-3 days.

    Weather.gov still shows high for Edmond of 35 on Friday, 39 on Saturday and now 51 on Sunday.
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  44. #12444
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Higher RES NAM models showing more freezing rain in the OKC area with the freezing line farther SE for Friday. I'm interested in tonight's runs when the system gets closer to land





    Should be around 15. 10-15 mph will be common
    As mentioned the NAM actually shifts the freezing line further south. This would place ice in both Tulsa and Norman. The thing sticking out with the NAM is a good band of 1/4 to 1/2 just north of the freezing line with much smaller ice amounts until you reach the storm bullseye in NW OK and SW KS.

    Next few NAM models will be interesting to see. Interesting to see Euro still generating an 1 inch of ice. None of models are in alignment right now.
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  45. #12445
    That 2007 ice storm was ****ing epic. I remember not having electricity for 2 weeks, and walking up campus corner around a bevy of broken trees.

  46. #12446
    When's it supposed to start on Friday?

  47. #12447
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    I may drive down to Norman Thursday night and just hang out for 2-3 days.

    Weather.gov still shows high for Edmond of 35 on Friday, 39 on Saturday and now 51 on Sunday.
    It seems to me when these things happen the future temps are bogus. If we get 1/2 ice it coats all ground surfaces and the temps then struggle to break freezing? But if we don't get ice then it may be closer to predicted temps?

    What say you expurts?

  48. #12448
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    As mentioned the NAM actually shifts the freezing line further south. This would place ice in both Tulsa and Norman. The thing sticking out with the NAM is a good band of 1/4 to 1/2 just north of the freezing line with much smaller ice amounts until you reach the storm bullseye in NW OK and SW KS.

    Next few NAM models will be interesting to see. Interesting to see Euro still generating an 1 inch of ice. None of models are in alignment right now.
    Like I said, the Euro did that over a 6 hour period from about midnight to 6 am Saturday. Nothing else because it was above freezing. I wouldn't put too much stock in the amount, more the Euro has it above freezing except for the Saturday morning, and then getting above freezing again


    As for the 18z NAM, it has OKC metro, including Norman below freezing until Saturday around noon. Has some freezing rain in Tulsa, but Tulsa gets above freezing via the NAM Friday afternoon. Then again, it has Tulsa at 33, so if it was off by a degree or 2, that's all the difference it needs


    Even more interesting, the 18z Parallel is a colder than operational model. It has tulsa at or below freezing until Saturday morning
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  49. #12449
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    It seems to me when these things happen the future temps are bogus. If we get 1/2 ice it coats all ground surfaces and the temps then struggle to break freezing? But if we don't get ice then it may be closer to predicted temps?

    What say you expurts?
    From what I am seeing right now a warm front will probably begin to lift as the system moves north. The NAM doesnt go out far enough to see where exactly the low will lift north, but if it lifts west of OKC there will be warm air lifting north. This will result in OKC getting rain as the event progresses. The ice won't hold temperatures down.

    My best guess based on NAM, is the freezing line will advance south somewhere along the I-44 corridor. It will stall in its advance south. Where it stalls and starts to meet the warmer air you will see the heaviest ice bands of ice (1/4 to 1/2 in). The front will become a warm front and quickly lift rain into the OKC area. Whatever ice OKC gets could possibly be melted rather quickly as regular rain overtakes the area. This my thoughts based on the NAM.
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  50. #12450
    Originally Posted by ImTheDude View Post
    When's it supposed to start on Friday?
    Pre-dawn hours from what I've seen.

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