Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

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  1. #9901
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    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    SATP is probably more qualified to answer than me, but the latest HRRR appears to have the triple point lifting NE just over Norman. This would surge warm, moist air into Norman just as it approaches. Maybe only for a couple hours in advance of the triple point passing. The RAP has a northern jog in the warm front to the northwest progression of the triple point, but it's a very narrow warm sector.
    HRRR trends are definitely concerning and we are seeing it lift on the Mesonet. Things just got much more interesting for the OKC metro.
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  2. #9902
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    Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    SATP, am I misreading the HRRR or is it bringing the warm front just North of Norman on the 13Z run. 79 degree temp with a 67 dew at 3 pm with storms west of Lawton

    Haven't really had time to look into it
    It changed sharply from 10-12z to 13z after. I was looking at the early morning runs. Looks like it finally got the radar right and the 12z raobs in it.
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  3. #9903
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    Originally Posted by krypton View Post
    SATP since you have vested interest in Houston... are we going back underwater?
    Watching that too; some indications of training storms and heavy rain nearby to the north and northwest. Certainly a concern

  4. #9904
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    HRRR trends are definitely concerning and we are seeing it lift on the Mesonet. Things just got much more interesting for the OKC metro.
    Still looking at the 5-6pm time frame for metro area?
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  5. #9905
    So an outdoor party set for 5pm in Norman today should be postponed then, got it.
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  6. #9906
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    Originally Posted by Julz View Post
    Still looking at the 5-6pm time frame for metro area?
    Yes
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  7. #9907
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    Originally Posted by OrionJc View Post
    So an outdoor party set for 5pm in Norman today should be postponed then, got it.
    I don't think you have to cancel it, but I'd have a backup plan and stay weather aware?
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  8. #9908
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    I'd say after 3pm.
    Thank you sir.

  9. #9909
    Think it'll stay west in okc area? Or should Tulsa area be concerned as well?

  10. #9910
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    I don't think you have to cancel it, but I'd have a backup plan and stay weather aware?
    Damn it man! You're not helping me here. (Thanks though)
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  11. #9911
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    Looks like the SPC even wasn't able to register the last few HRRR runs as their risk description more closely matched what it looked like this morning. Very uncertain and I hate the models flip flopping hour over hour!


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  12. #9912
    Originally Posted by Soonermarty View Post
    Think it'll stay west in okc area? Or should Tulsa area be concerned as well?
    Should see a squall line in Tulsa. Looks like the models are trying to congeal storms as they approach OKC.

  13. #9913
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    Looks like the SPC even wasn't able to register the last few HRRR runs as their risk description more closely matched what it looked like this morning. Very uncertain and I hate the models flip flopping hour over hour!


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    That's why they had a 5% line all the way to 240 this morning, to account for variability like that.

  14. #9914
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    Should see a squall line in Tulsa. Looks like the models are trying to congeal storms as they approach OKC.
    Cool, so probably just Hail and wind. It seems pretty cool here now with a nice breeze and cloudy.
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  15. #9915
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    OUN to do a 19z balloon launch. Time to raise the eyebrows at this one. Watch the old i-44 corridor as a potential landing point for the warm front and the axis of greatest concern this afternoon. Latest HRRR CAPE forecast.


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  16. #9916
    SATP, when would you predict storms hitting the Metro based on this new information?

    Just wondering how rush hour traffic will look this evening.

    Thanks as always for keeping us up to date!

  17. #9917
    Satp, currently in Dallas with no tv access for the next few hours. How are things looking down this way? Any worse than yesterday?

  18. #9918
    Man this is all foreign to me. Wish I knew more about this. Here I am outside thinking it's rather quite cool plus with the wind factor, and it's not going to do anything but maybe rain.

    Clearly there's more to it than what I said.


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  19. #9919
    Originally Posted by Hot Rod View Post
    SATP, when would you predict storms hitting the Metro based on this new information?

    Just wondering how rush hour traffic will look this evening.

    Thanks as always for keeping us up to date!
    Rush hour is every hour anymore in Oklahoma City.
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  20. #9920
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    NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman 36m36 minutes ago
    1230pm - for those saying "it's too cold for severe weather", the warmer more unstable air is not far away

  21. #9921
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    Originally Posted by Hot Rod View Post
    SATP, when would you predict storms hitting the Metro based on this new information?

    Just wondering how rush hour traffic will look this evening.

    Thanks as always for keeping us up to date!
    4-7pm. So in rush hour
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  22. #9922
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    NWS SPC ‏@NWSSPC 6m6 minutes ago
    1:07pm CDT #SPC_Watch WW 124 TORNADO TX 291805Z - 300300Z, #txwx, http://go.usa.gov/cu5xk


  23. #9923
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    HRRR is going all in on supercell/tornado potential along the I-44 corridor and as far north of OKC. It's been doing this the last several hours. Not what you want to see for sure.

    I'm not convinced this is an outbreak day, but the chance of tornadic supercells a few hours before the event, at least for me, is quite a bit higher than it was on Tuesday. CHS, ekeithly,...credit to the NAM...it got the details a bit fumbled a few days ago but the evolution is on track.

    But there is no reason to panic. This is springtime in Oklahoma. As Gary said for Tuesday, we've done this drill too many times to count. It is time, however, to raise that guard.

    Reflectivity/Helicity from latest HRRR for 5pm

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  24. #9924
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    Originally Posted by max fischer View Post
    Satp, currently in Dallas with no tv access for the next few hours. How are things looking down this way? Any worse than yesterday?
    Yes, time to raise the guard. Tornado watch is up and storms will activate off the dryline just west of 35 within the next few hours. All hazards possible, including tornadoes.

  25. #9925
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    HRRR is going all in on supercell/tornado potential along the I-44 corridor and as far north of OKC. It's been doing this the last several hours. Not what you want to see for sure.

    I'm not convinced this is an outbreak day, but the chance of tornadic supercells a few hours before the event, at least for me, is quite a bit higher than it was on Tuesday. CHS, ekeithly,...credit to the NAM...it got the details a bit fumbled a few days ago but the evolution is on track.

    But there is no reason to panic. This is springtime in Oklahoma. As Gary said for Tuesday, we've done this drill too many times to count. It is time, however, to raise that guard.

    Reflectivity/Helicity from latest HRRR for 5pm

    I was just thinking we needed to see the CAPE start building in over SW OK to verify the HRRR, and according to the SPC mesoscale analysis page it looks like we are getting verification.

    Uncertain what to think of storm development in SW OK. It seems a bit early, but the storm in the very SW corner is going to ride the best air. Or is related to storm development we have seen out west all morning? Is there another round of development we are waiting for?

  26. #9926
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    Looks like the SPC even wasn't able to register the last few HRRR runs as their risk description more closely matched what it looked like this morning. Very uncertain and I hate the models flip flopping hour over hour!


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    So in other words it was programmed by a woman?
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  27. #9927
    Tornado watch likely to be issued here in the next hour or so
    could include OKC
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  28. #9928
    I know its been said but you guys are the best. I see no panic in your posts just logical and great weather discussion which a person can do as they may with it. Appreciate the good work and knowledge you provide.
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  29. #9929
    We are looking +6 to +10 temperatures south of the metro in last three hours and Dewpoint depression hovering under 5.

  30. #9930
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    I know its been said but you guys are the best. I see no panic in your posts just logical and great weather discussion which a person can do as they may with it. Appreciate the good work and knowledge you provide.
    Agreed. When trying to direct my wife and the kids in the right direction, I always check to see what's being said here. Thankful for the knowledge and information you all share.
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  31. #9931
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    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    So in other words it was programmed by a woman?

  32. #9932
    A look at the storms in SW OK

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  33. #9933
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    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    A look at the storms in SW OK

    Storms appear to be "going up rotating". And they appear to be riding the baroclinic boundary. I don't like the look of this as it starts.
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  34. #9934
    Storms SW of Altus...not good.

  35. #9935
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    Feeling warmer in Norman and I have seen a small amount of sun though the haze

  36. #9936
    Tornado watch issued, includes Oklahoma county


    Here's the watch

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  37. #9937
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    LMFAO

    Looks kinda like how I grew up with 7 siblings. It was total warfare every day, until Dad made us run out and pick the switch he was gonna use on us. I was crying before I even picked it lol. Do I go with small, medium or medium/large? If too small he would then go pick the biggest one so it was a tough decision to make. Hell, that was more painfull than the actual switching.

    The gif you posted reminds me of teaching my sis how to drive a riding mower. She promtly drove it on top of a mound and got it center stuck lol. I can still picture her screaming meanwhile the rear wheels are turning in the air and full throttle engine blaring. Wish we had cell phones back then.

  38. #9938
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    Storms really exploding in SW OK. Storm near Altus is cycling and a new meso is forming. It may give it a go before too much longer.
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  39. #9939
    It has to be close.

  40. #9940
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    It's been snowing all day. They said it wasn't going to accumulate, but it's starting to accumulate.

  41. #9941
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    I still like the tornado threat south of OKC along I-44 to I-35 before these storms merge into a linear system.

  42. #9942
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    I still like the tornado threat south of OKC along I-44 to I-35 before these storms merge into a linear system.
    Hey, that's where I live!

  43. #9943
    Sitting in moore now thinking about going to get the kids early. From what I am seeing and what you are saying I'm thinking my better bet would be to go to my family's house in Choctaw.

  44. #9944
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    Originally Posted by BoomerSooner2578 View Post
    It's been snowing all day. They said it wasn't going to accumulate, but it's starting to accumulate.
    I'll trade your accumulation for potential hail and tornado damage.
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  45. #9945
    Originally Posted by SoonerBeerSnob View Post
    Sitting in moore now thinking about going to get the kids early. From what I am seeing and what you are saying I'm thinking my better bet would be to go to my family's house in Choctaw.
    Leave the kids behind? Harsh.

  46. #9946
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    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    I still like the tornado threat south of OKC along I-44 to I-35 before these storms merge into a linear system.
    So, Moore

  47. #9947
    A look at the storm in SW oK


    Surprised Phil's dog hasn't issued a warning
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  48. #9948
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    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    A look at the storm in SW oK


    Surprised Phil's dog hasn't issued a warning
    Phil may be hiding with her.

  49. #9949
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    I know its been said but you guys are the best. I see no panic in your posts just logical and great weather discussion which a person can do as they may with it. Appreciate the good work and knowledge you provide.
    This thread alone justifies paying server fees for LT.
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  50. #9950
    If it lines out as its trying to we are good shape, but it could be entering a more favorable region soon.
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