Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

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  1. #9901
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    I'm already exhausted by keeping up with the weather. I'm in the middle of OKC. Safe? Y or N
    It's gonna be a long season, I'm afraid.

  2. #9902
    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    Seems like I have a group of meteorologists working for me.

    Thanks, guys/girls
    This place is more accurate than any other place including TV and online.

    Plus we have the trump card - Doppler Dog!
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  3. #9903
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    Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    Seems like I have a group of meteorologists working for me.

    Thanks, guys/girls
    When you have one.... ❤️
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  4. #9904
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    When you have one.... ❤️
    Hey, Rib, thanks for the pic. I didn't realize there is an Etowah, Oklahoma. Must have been a result of the Trail of Tears. My mother was from Canton, GA, and I remember the bank she used in Canton was the Etowah Bank. My oldest brother went to Georgia Tech, and has spent a lot of time in and around Canton. He knows where tree are that had their branches broken to mark the trail for the Indians to travel.
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  5. #9905
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    Originally Posted by max fischer View Post
    I'm headed to Dallas tomorrow AM for the weekend. Are we talking tornadoes and stuff or just severe thunderstorms?
    Potentially, tomorrow afternoon and evening.

  6. #9906
    Originally Posted by NickDangerThirdEye View Post
    Hey, Rib, thanks for the pic. I didn't realize there is an Etowah, Oklahoma. Must have been a result of the Trail of Tears. My mother was from Canton, GA, and I remember the bank she used in Canton was the Etowah Bank. My oldest brother went to Georgia Tech, and has spent a lot of time in and around Canton. He knows where tree are that had their branches broken to mark the trail for the Indians to travel.
    I could listen to Georgia/Alabama weather coverage and not be able to tell if I was in Eastern Oklahoma or SE US. Most of the towns and features have been
    named after the orginal location from down there.
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  7. #9907
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    Originally Posted by SoonerChris View Post
    SATP/CHS, thoughts on this quasi-solution?

    36 HOUR WINDOW – TORNADOES STILL LIKELY FRIDAY
    I tell you, the HRRR, like it's weird experimental sister the HRRRX (which for some reason has gone AWOL here the last few hours) is developing a line of storms in the Texas Panhandle tomorrow and as of 5am has the warm front still south of the Red River. Now it's just now coming into range so later this evening, it's going to tell us how all of this should evolve tomorrow morning through mid-day.

    Right now, I'd sell tomorrow's risk rather than buy it for Central OK.
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  8. #9908
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    Originally Posted by SoonerChris View Post
    SATP/CHS, thoughts on this quasi-solution?

    36 HOUR WINDOW – TORNADOES STILL LIKELY FRIDAY
    It's Aaron Tuttle, so no.
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  9. #9909
    Originally Posted by bushmaster06 View Post
    It's Aaron Tuttle, so no.
    Careful he will send his copywrite lawyers after you.

  10. #9910
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    Originally Posted by SoonerBeerSnob View Post
    Careful he will send his copywrite lawyers after you.
    I'm shaking in my clogs...
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  11. #9911
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    I'm already exhausted by keeping up with the weather. I'm in the middle of OKC. Safe? Y or N
    It's gonna be a long season, I'm afraid.
    Safe? Y or N

    Not sure yet
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  12. #9912
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    I could listen to Georgia/Alabama weather coverage and not be able to tell if I was in Eastern Oklahoma or SE US. Most of the towns and features have been
    named after the orginal location from down there.
    Yep. There's a Coweta - in Georgia it is pronounced "cow' - etta". Lots of common city and county names.

  13. #9913
    Latest HRRR ends at 11 am CDT, has the line of showers and storms moving through OKC. Also has those 70 dew points and temps as well as better CAPE just south of Norman or south of the showers. Wonder if it redevelops storms or clears out around noon in enough time to destabilize.

    Radar


    Temps


    Dews


    Cape
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  14. #9914
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    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Latest HRRR ends at 11 am CDT, has the line of showers and storms moving through OKC. Also has those 70 dew points and temps as well as better CAPE just south of Norman or south of the showers. Wonder if it redevelops storms or clears out around noon in enough time to destabilize.

    Radar


    Temps


    Dews


    Cape
    We'll see, but the 4km NAM can see that window and it has Oklahoma remaining stable after this morning storm window (that the HRRRX forecasted hours ago when I posted).

    Still selling the risk but I might consider drifting northward from North Texas across the Red River if the MCS out of Texas just clips OKC rather than rolling through it.
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  15. #9915
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    We'll see, but the 4km NAM can see that window and it has Oklahoma remaining stable after this morning storm window (that the HRRRX forecasted hours ago when I posted).

    Still selling the risk but I might consider drifting northward from North Texas across the Red River if the MCS out of Texas just clips OKC rather than rolling through it.
    Yeah, for some reason the HRRRX stop producing after that run.

    I'd sell the risk as well, just don't like dealing with morning "crapvection" and hoping a warm front moves far enough North, but something to look at tomorrow morning
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  16. #9916
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    I just got home from work, and I imagine I'll be asleep fairly soon. What's up for tomorrow?

  17. #9917
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    I just got home from work, and I imagine I'll be asleep fairly soon. What's up for tomorrow?
    From the NWS Norman

    OVERVIEW ON SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY:
    OK, Everyone. I know there are a lot of people worried about severe weather Friday afternoon and evening. There is some uncertainty with what will happen during this time but I will try to explain what we are looking at. I apologize ahead of time for this will probably be long.
    Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas overnight into Friday morning with the activity increasing in coverage after midnight. Some of these storms may become severe with large hail possible (up to size of golf balls).
    What happens tonight into Friday morning will play a big role in the extent and potential for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening. If the morning showers and thunderstorms move out fairly quickly Friday morning, the atmosphere will likely have a chance to recover. This will likely increase the potential for severe storm development Friday afternoon and evening with very large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of tornadoes. However, if the showers/storms linger in the area the potential for severe storms will likely go down. There still may be some severe storms but likely not as many and the potential hazards could be lower.
    Unfortunately the forecast is complicated and we won't know until we see how things play out tonight into tomorrow. What it boils down to is: Whether we have severe storms and how bad they are Friday afternoon/evening will likely depend on what happens tonight into Friday morning. So we recommend you stay weather aware Friday and check the forecast often for the latest updates. Stay Safe Everyone!

    TL;DR we'll find out tomorrow morning. Storms hang around throughout the morning = less chance for severe weather. Storms move out quickly tomorrow, atmosphere recovers = better chance for severe weather
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  18. #9918
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    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    From the NWS Norman




    TL;DR we'll find out tomorrow morning. Storms hang around throughout the morning = less chance for severe weather. Storms move out quickly tomorrow, atmosphere recovers = better chance for severe weather
    Cool thanks. I'm in my office tomorrow for a couple of hours, no travel. Guess we'll wait and see.

  19. #9919
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    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    From the NWS Norman
    It’s good when they tell the truth like that rather than go with one forecast that could bust either way!
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  20. #9920
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    Heading out to watonga. What is the outlook for today?

  21. #9921
    Originally Posted by metes View Post
    Heading out to watonga. What is the outlook for today?
    Partly cloudy with a chance of meatballs.
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  22. #9922
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    Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

    Originally Posted by Organic Potatoes View Post
    Partly cloudy with a chance of meth.
    FIFY!
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  23. #9923
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    From the NWS Norman




    TL;DR we'll find out tomorrow morning. Storms hang around throughout the morning = less chance for severe weather. Storms move out quickly tomorrow, atmosphere recovers = better chance for severe weather
    Im guessing chances of severe weather went down this morn?

  24. #9924
    Originally Posted by KyleOU View Post
    Im guessing chances of severe weather went down this morn?
    Still a bit early to say. Cloud deck/rain hanging around helps, but if it were to clear out quickly the atmosphere could still recover enough for the afternoon storms. Tough setup to predict.

  25. #9925
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    How are we looking for tball in the city this evening ?

  26. #9926
    Originally Posted by KyleOU View Post
    Im guessing chances of severe weather went down this morn?
    We are not out of the woods yet. Storms mostly skirted the area to the east, and uncertainty remains over how recent development out west will impact the area in coming hours.

    Warm front is across Red River and models project it making run into C. OK. Most likely will get very close to OKC, but may end up falling just short. It could be a scenario where point SW OKC might be at more risk than those NE OKC. This still leaves a window of decent instability for supercells to form in SW OK as low level lapse rates build in from west Texas this afternoon. HRRR has mostly been quiet, but the latest run does have a storm forming.

    The tornado potential looks lower than it did even in the event of supercell formation, but winds around warm fronts usually favor tornado formation so any storm south or along warm front is of concern. The best shear should shift to our NW as it moves with the low from the Texas/OK panhandle into KS over the course of the afternoon, and to our SE along the Red RIverson of SE OK.

    NWS highlights a more moderate threat of tornadoes along the Red River in SE OK, but in there discussion admit the forecast scenario is complex with many questions. SPC going with 10% probs. with no hatched area along SE OK, and 5% into C. and W. OK including metro.

    NWS also highlights storm interference with complex of storms in Texas Panhandle and NW OK could impact afternoon development. Also formation of storms in C Texas and N Texas could intercept best moisture flow into Oklahoma if coverage of storms is significant enough.

    I think the window remains slightly open for supercells to form, but it's going be a fairly narrow location and time frame for it to happen. Storms that do form in SW OK will most likely lose severity as the move NE into and past the metro area as conditions are probably going to be less favorable.
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  27. #9927
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    I’m going to install some type of decorative concrete retaining wall around mind.
    But the bottom line is there is a solution for nearly every situation and desire.
    I've seriously thought about moving into a monolithic home.

    Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
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  28. #9928
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  29. #9929
    what he said, high uncertainty, positioning of the front crucial, some significant storms possible

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  30. #9930
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    So things generally are playing out like I described them yesterday. I think the metro is going to be just fine on the high end severe weather threat; the warm front is going to stay south of I-40. The last several runs of the HRRR keeps the triple point, the area of biggest concern, along the Red River.

    Convection that was expected in the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma is out there this morning, but it's weaker and less widespread than forecast. This appears to allow for a window of opportunity in Southwest or South Central OK, where the warm front reaches, to have the potential to see higher end severe weather. I think hail and wind are bigger threats, but a tornado can't be ruled out if a storm rides an outflow boundary or sticks and roots on the warm front.

    So in conclusion, Feeling much better about Central Oklahoma, though the area the NWS has highlighted from Lawton to Ardmore still has some risk and folks south of I-40 need to remain weather aware.
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  31. #9931
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    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    Warm front is across Red River and models project it making run into C. OK. Most likely will get very close to OKC, but may end up falling just short. It could be a scenario where point SW OKC might be at more risk than those NE OKC. This still leaves a window of decent instability for supercells to form in SW OK as low level lapse rates build in from west Texas this afternoon. HRRR has mostly been quiet, but the latest run does have a storm forming.
    Not seeing that, at least not in the models I trust. They have been persistent about location. In fact you can see cells dying off as it leaves the warm sector as it approaches OKC in the HRRR.
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  32. #9932
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    Originally Posted by metes View Post
    How are we looking for tball in the city this evening ?
    Questionable. I don't think high end severe weather will impact the metro rigiht now, but thunderstorms with a hail risk is a distinct possibility.
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  33. #9933
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    Originally Posted by metes View Post
    Heading out to watonga. What is the outlook for today?
    Cool today since you will most likely stay north of the warm front all day. Elevated showers and storms possible throughout the day with a hail risk starting later this afternoon.
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  34. #9934
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    Not seeing that, at least not in the models I trust. They have been persistent about location. In fact you can see cells dying off as it leaves the warm sector as it approaches OKC in the HRRR.
    Both the RAP and GFS have southerly winds in South Central OK. I think the warm front makes it somewhere between Ardmore and Norman, which explains NWS enhanced risk band. My wording was probably not the best. It could make it very close, but that would probably be the closest it makes it.

  35. #9935
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    So things generally are playing out like I described them yesterday. I think the metro is going to be just fine on the high end severe weather threat; the warm front is going to stay south of I-40. The last several runs of the HRRR keeps the triple point, the area of biggest concern, along the Red River.

    Convection that was expected in the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma is out there this morning, but it's weaker and less widespread than forecast. This appears to allow for a window of opportunity in Southwest or South Central OK, where the warm front reaches, to have the potential to see higher end severe weather. I think hail and wind are bigger threats, but a tornado can't be ruled out if a storm rides an outflow boundary or sticks and roots on the warm front.

    So in conclusion, Feeling much better about Central Oklahoma, though the area the NWS has highlighted from Lawton to Ardmore still has some risk and folks south of I-40 need to remain weather aware.
    Lawton. Always Lawton.

    I hope the heavy stuff misses points west of me. Tipton has had 8" of rain over the last two weeks. They don't need any more.
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  36. #9936
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    It’s probably going to be plenty close enough for those of us who live in Norman as I do.

  37. #9937
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    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    It’s probably going to be plenty close enough for those of us who live in Norman as I do.
    There are some hints in the most recent HRRR runs of some supercellular looking convection riding the warm front north of the Red River and south of Norman. That is I think the big concern today and something to keep an eye out for definitely.
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  38. #9938
    Finishing up work in Tulsa today and will head back to Norman later this afternoon. What time will hail be most likely for Norman?? Want to make sure I'm back before the risk of hail is at it's greatest.

    Educated guesses please??

    Thanks

  39. #9939
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    Originally Posted by gratefulRed View Post
    Finishing up work in Tulsa today and will head back to Norman later this afternoon. What time will hail be most likely for Norman?? Want to make sure I'm back before the risk of hail is at it's greatest.

    Educated guesses please??

    Thanks
    I'd say after 3pm.

  40. #9940
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    SATP since you have vested interest in Houston... are we going back underwater?

  41. #9941
    SATP, am I misreading the HRRR or is it bringing the warm front just North of Norman on the 13Z run. 79 degree temp with a 67 dew at 3 pm with storms west of Lawton

    Haven't really had time to look into it

  42. #9942
    pretty good wind chill up here in the north today

  43. #9943
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    SATP, am I misreading the HRRR or is it bringing the warm front just North of Norman on the 13Z run. 79 degree temp with a 67 dew at 3 pm with storms west of Lawton

    Haven't really had time to look into it
    SATP is probably more qualified to answer than me, but the latest HRRR appears to have the triple point lifting NE just over Norman. This would surge warm, moist air into Norman just as it approaches. Maybe only for a couple hours in advance of the triple point passing. The RAP has a northern jog in the warm front to the northwest progression of the triple point, but it's a very narrow warm sector.
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  44. #9944
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    SATP is probably more qualified to answer than me, but the latest HRRR appears to have the triple point lifting NE just over Norman. This would surge warm, moist air into Norman just as it approaches. Maybe only for a couple hours in advance of the triple point passing. The RAP has a northern jog in the warm front to the northwest progression of the triple point, but it's a very narrow warm sector.
    Yeah, I dug in a little bit more. HRRR putting warm front just north of Norman, putting up to 3000 CAPE. It's definitely something OKC people need to watch today. I attempted to post the newest HRRR, but apparently I didn't post it.
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  45. #9945
    Latest HRRR, at 5 pm CDT has supercells just to the west and SW of OKC



    And pushing through at 6pm

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  46. #9946
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    Sun is trying to come out in Ada. Temp is 65 and dew point is 62.

  47. #9947
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    Jump back and watch out kiddos. HRRR is taking advantage of the newly cleared boundary layer and IS Bringing the warm front up to I-40. It's already on the move; you can see it about one or two rows of counties north of the Red River.

    Expanding my recommendation on being weather aware for everyone a few counties on either side of I-40 and southward now.
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  48. #9948
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    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    SATP is probably more qualified to answer than me, but the latest HRRR appears to have the triple point lifting NE just over Norman. This would surge warm, moist air into Norman just as it approaches. Maybe only for a couple hours in advance of the triple point passing. The RAP has a northern jog in the warm front to the northwest progression of the triple point, but it's a very narrow warm sector.
    HRRR trends are definitely concerning and we are seeing it lift on the Mesonet. Things just got much more interesting for the OKC metro.
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  49. #9949
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    Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    SATP, am I misreading the HRRR or is it bringing the warm front just North of Norman on the 13Z run. 79 degree temp with a 67 dew at 3 pm with storms west of Lawton

    Haven't really had time to look into it
    It changed sharply from 10-12z to 13z after. I was looking at the early morning runs. Looks like it finally got the radar right and the 12z raobs in it.
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  50. #9950
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    Originally Posted by krypton View Post
    SATP since you have vested interest in Houston... are we going back underwater?
    Watching that too; some indications of training storms and heavy rain nearby to the north and northwest. Certainly a concern

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