IMHO - the weather is not hot enough for a big ol' nasty nader
I thought I saw where it is going to approach 90 tomorrow west of the metro ...IMHO - the weather is not hot enough for a big ol' nasty nader
For my fellow Tulsa area posters.
I have an app that let's you follow chasers and watch their stream. Might be interesting.
Worth noting the HRRR is breaking out at least 2 supercells late this afternoon and this evening...one near Ardmore before sunset and one just south of the Red River this evening. There's a question as to whether or not any storms will form today. Will be interesting to see if this ends up being right.
Y'all might remember how well the HRRR did last severe weather season.
Just downloaded this. Thanks guys.
Weather Watch Oklahoma
14 mins ·
Severe Weather Update: Wednesday.. Models are coming together for a possible large scale event starting tomorrow late afternoon. The trend is towards a moderate risk for a good portion of the state including OKC and TULSA. I would like for the next data set to come in before trying to give specifics. The primary risk is going to be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes as we get closer to evening time. The map is the latest forecast from The Storm Prediction Center concerning tomorrow's event this might change slightly with the next update as better data comes in. Be weather aware Wednesday. ~ Mike
Hmm.....KOTV's map here is showing what I think is a high risk tomorrow. .
They're making these scary maps but they all say "low risk". Should I sell my soul to the devil or wait until tomorrow?
I have never seen a tornado in real life. I've always wanted to "see" one and not experience one. There is such beauty in them....but like a poster said above...can't we just keep them fenced up?
Lot's of chaser vehicles were heading south of Lawton on I44.....
I think I saw channel 4's armored vehicle "The Beast"....at least I think that is what it said on the side....
Living in Oklahoma I've seen four tornadoes without having to go look for them. I was just in the right place at the right time.
Is Reed the dominator2. Being able to hear and see their video is awesome.
Cool graphic of it.
Yes Coach... Reed is Dominator 2.
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Bring on the tornadoes!
.......CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION. LARGE
SCALE MODELS HINT AT PERHAPS A LINE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WHILE HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS
POINT TO A MUCH MORE ISOLATED SCENARIO WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO
STORMS. EITHER WAY...IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM IN THE WRONG PLACE TO
MAKE A MAJOR IMPACT...SO TODAY WILL BE ONE WORTH WATCHING.
SHOULD STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY WITH IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. VERY LARGE HAIL ON THE ORDER OF TENNIS
BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY IN THE 6 PM TO 9 PM TIMEFRAME FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES FROM MAINLY CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAIL AND WINDS.
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY HEADING INTO THE NIGHT...BUT
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.
THIS COMBINED WITH APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INTO THE NIGHT...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING
[email protected]: Another round of severe weather is anticipated Thursday afternoon and evening. Have a plan if severe weather strikes. http://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/4...346/photo/1”
So it seems like from most sources it won't be too bad today. Even channel five wasn't too excited. But reed thinks it's going to be really bad. Is this mike rubbing off on him?
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All about the dryline position and orientation today kiddos; how far east it mixes and how sharp it is will determine who has a shot at seeing some springtime fun.
The HRRR doesn't look too ominous for Oklahoma; it doesn't sharpen the dryline very much. It tries to fire storms off near the metro around 6-7pm before backing the dryline up. It's actually got one robust supercell hanging out around the Red River near sunset but not much else. The NAM keeps the dryline back over Western Oklahoma. makes it much sharper, and surges the dewpoints into the upper 60s over the metro which would spell trouble if any storms form.
The sharper the dryline (bigger change in dewpoint) the stronger the winds on either side, which will aid storms in forming.
For now, I'd say look for one or two storms, one of which might take hold and pose a threat, starting somewhere west of I-35. Really could be anywhere from the KS to TX border. They'd move toward the NE. By lunch time or so, we'll have a better handle on how things will play out. Certainly stay weather aware, but we're not looking at an outbreak or anything right now.
Tulsa peeps: If you get anything it'll be after dark. RIght now, potent setup for tomorrow is expected just to your east, but it's possible that risk area will shift back to the west if the dryline decides to hang out farther west in Western Oklahoma today. So that bears watching.
Instability is pretty high:
Simulated radar has a big momma trolling around the Red River