Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

Posted 1429 day(s) ago by KCRuf/Nek1441131 Views 16329 Replies
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  1. #12301
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    RIP Kansas, we hardly knew ye.
    That’s mostly in small town rural western KS where people are generally winter resilient and where many have alternative sources of heat and power.

    I’m glad I don’t live there anymore.

  2. #12302
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    That’s mostly in small town rural western KS where people are generally winter resilient and where many have alternative sources of heat and power.

    I’m glad I don’t live there anymore.
    Plus I don't think there is a single tree out there to be downed by any puny ice storm.

  3. #12303
    Supposed to drive from Dallas to Canyon, TX on Saturday morning, then returning that night...yay or nay?

    That last model doesn't look too bad.

  4. #12304
    OU48A's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    Plus I don't think there is a single tree out there to be downed by any puny ice storm.
    In many places that’s completely true…..
    One other thing that will help some is their electrical system is continually tested by very high winds…. The wind will fine the weaker spots as they occur rather than the ice finding them all in one day.
    But it will still be very bad…. Freezing rain followed by a deep wind driven snow will kill a lot of cattle and wild life.

  5. #12305
    To me, western KS is some of the roughest, most forlorn, cold, nasty, depressing, ugly, windy, cactussy, rocky outcropped, savage, inhumane ground in the country. Add an ice storm to it and you barely even notice.
    3 users like Bustarime's post: Morningwood, Oldnslo, Stinger_1066


  6. #12306

  7. #12307
    Tulsa update please.

  8. #12308
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by ptlandman View Post
    Tulsa update please.
    Nobody cares about us.
    2 users like Mjcpr's post: Maximus, oucub23


  9. #12309
    western kansas > tulsa
    4 users like RedStripe's post: burnsyo, Fugue, hawkdriver, Mjcpr


  10. #12310
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    Nobody cares about us.
    They hate us cause they ain't us.
    4 users like CZECHVAR's post: Crazyivan, Mjcpr, Oldnslo, oorah_okie


  11. #12311
    Originally Posted by ptlandman View Post
    Tulsa update please.
    Rain and freezing rain before noon Friday. Lots of rain for the rest of the weekend. If temps drop a couple more degrees you could see significant icing Friday.

  12. #12312
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    Rain and freezing rain before noon Friday. Lots of rain for the rest of the weekend. If temps drop a couple more degrees you could see significant icing Friday.
    I feel like this is an Always Save version of the forecast. Where's our graphs and color shaded maps?

  13. #12313
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    Sounds like my wife might get a 4 day weekend. Her principal says he doubts school will be in session on Friday, and Monday is the MLK holiday.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  14. #12314
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post
    I feel like this is an Always Save version of the forecast. Where's our graphs and color shaded maps?
    2 users like pphilfran's post: Mjcpr, Oldnslo


  15. #12315
    Tulsa might not get any freezing rain. Latest models keeping the freezing line just to the NW. Models do usually are warmer temperature wise on a shallow cold front like this, but I'll stick with them not being off by much. Ultimately, I trust the Euro more than the GFS in terms of placement of the low just based on previous performances (like last weekend, and then the storm in Minnesota earlier this year) but the 12z Euro dumps 1.3 inches of freezing rain in OKC all falling in the wee hours of Saturday (like 1 am). Then it moves the freezing line back to the NW and has the rest fall as rain.


    Ultimately, placement of the low is still off on all the models, with the GFS moving the low faster and farther west and north while the Euro takes it over OK at a slower pace. NAM is also slower, although we're too far out for it to move it north.

  16. #12316
    [QUOTE=pphilfran;3227617][URL=http://s38.photobucket.com/user/pphilfran1/media/Mobile%20Uploads/2017

    Shoot, that's 32 hour old. I've already had 3 BM's. We need freshness!!

  17. #12317
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post

    Shoot, that's 32 hour old. I've already had 3 BM's. We need freshness!!
    Try some witch hazel wipes.
    2 users like oucub23's post: Crazyivan, gratefulRed


  18. #12318
    The comments to that article almost make me think there's hope for that state.

  19. #12319
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Tulsa might not get any freezing rain. Latest models keeping the freezing line just to the NW. Models do usually are warmer temperature wise on a shallow cold front like this, but I'll stick with them not being off by much. Ultimately, I trust the Euro more than the GFS in terms of placement of the low just based on previous performances (like last weekend, and then the storm in Minnesota earlier this year) but the 12z Euro dumps 1.3 inches of freezing rain in OKC all falling in the wee hours of Saturday (like 1 am). Then it moves the freezing line back to the NW and has the rest fall as rain.


    Ultimately, placement of the low is still off on all the models, with the GFS moving the low faster and farther west and north while the Euro takes it over OK at a slower pace. NAM is also slower, although we're too far out for it to move it north.
    Any projected wind speeds/gusts with this? More than 15 MPH?

  20. #12320
    Higher RES NAM models showing more freezing rain in the OKC area with the freezing line farther SE for Friday. I'm interested in tonight's runs when the system gets closer to land

    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    Any projected wind speeds/gusts with this? More than 15 MPH?


    Should be around 15. 10-15 mph will be common

  21. #12321
    [QUOTE=Crazyivan;3227687][QUOTE=pphilfran;3227617][URL=http://s38.photobucket.com/user/pphilfran1/media/Mobile%20Uploads/2017

    Shoot, that's 32 hour old. I've already had 3 BM's. We need freshness!![/QUOTE]

    Get some TP...Pile up a big dob of Instant Hand Sanitizer Gel..Apply to sphincter...

  22. #12322
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

    The following users like this post: OU48A


  23. #12323
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

  24. #12324
    Dammit.

    I hate ice so much. 2007 really ****ed with me being without power for a week in Norman.

    We are Cub' neighbors now so this one is going to be close. Starting to look like Edmond/OKC is going to get hammered with crippling ice whereas Moore/Norman could be completely spared.

    C'mon Newcastle. Be far enough south to avoid horrible weather ... for once, spare us God.
    The following users like this post: oucub23


  25. #12325
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

    Y'all fooked.

  26. #12326
    Tulsey gonna be in the rear with the gear, watching the power flashes to the west.
    The following users like this post: CZECHVAR


  27. #12327
    I may drive down to Norman Thursday night and just hang out for 2-3 days.

    Weather.gov still shows high for Edmond of 35 on Friday, 39 on Saturday and now 51 on Sunday.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  28. #12328
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Higher RES NAM models showing more freezing rain in the OKC area with the freezing line farther SE for Friday. I'm interested in tonight's runs when the system gets closer to land





    Should be around 15. 10-15 mph will be common
    As mentioned the NAM actually shifts the freezing line further south. This would place ice in both Tulsa and Norman. The thing sticking out with the NAM is a good band of 1/4 to 1/2 just north of the freezing line with much smaller ice amounts until you reach the storm bullseye in NW OK and SW KS.

    Next few NAM models will be interesting to see. Interesting to see Euro still generating an 1 inch of ice. None of models are in alignment right now.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  29. #12329
    That 2007 ice storm was ****ing epic. I remember not having electricity for 2 weeks, and walking up campus corner around a bevy of broken trees.

  30. #12330
    When's it supposed to start on Friday?

  31. #12331
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    I may drive down to Norman Thursday night and just hang out for 2-3 days.

    Weather.gov still shows high for Edmond of 35 on Friday, 39 on Saturday and now 51 on Sunday.
    It seems to me when these things happen the future temps are bogus. If we get 1/2 ice it coats all ground surfaces and the temps then struggle to break freezing? But if we don't get ice then it may be closer to predicted temps?

    What say you expurts?

  32. #12332
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    As mentioned the NAM actually shifts the freezing line further south. This would place ice in both Tulsa and Norman. The thing sticking out with the NAM is a good band of 1/4 to 1/2 just north of the freezing line with much smaller ice amounts until you reach the storm bullseye in NW OK and SW KS.

    Next few NAM models will be interesting to see. Interesting to see Euro still generating an 1 inch of ice. None of models are in alignment right now.
    Like I said, the Euro did that over a 6 hour period from about midnight to 6 am Saturday. Nothing else because it was above freezing. I wouldn't put too much stock in the amount, more the Euro has it above freezing except for the Saturday morning, and then getting above freezing again


    As for the 18z NAM, it has OKC metro, including Norman below freezing until Saturday around noon. Has some freezing rain in Tulsa, but Tulsa gets above freezing via the NAM Friday afternoon. Then again, it has Tulsa at 33, so if it was off by a degree or 2, that's all the difference it needs


    Even more interesting, the 18z Parallel is a colder than operational model. It has tulsa at or below freezing until Saturday morning
    The following users like this post: ekeithly


  33. #12333
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    It seems to me when these things happen the future temps are bogus. If we get 1/2 ice it coats all ground surfaces and the temps then struggle to break freezing? But if we don't get ice then it may be closer to predicted temps?

    What say you expurts?
    From what I am seeing right now a warm front will probably begin to lift as the system moves north. The NAM doesnt go out far enough to see where exactly the low will lift north, but if it lifts west of OKC there will be warm air lifting north. This will result in OKC getting rain as the event progresses. The ice won't hold temperatures down.

    My best guess based on NAM, is the freezing line will advance south somewhere along the I-44 corridor. It will stall in its advance south. Where it stalls and starts to meet the warmer air you will see the heaviest ice bands of ice (1/4 to 1/2 in). The front will become a warm front and quickly lift rain into the OKC area. Whatever ice OKC gets could possibly be melted rather quickly as regular rain overtakes the area. This my thoughts based on the NAM.
    The following users like this post: SoonerVikeThunder


  34. #12334
    Originally Posted by ImTheDude View Post
    When's it supposed to start on Friday?
    Pre-dawn hours from what I've seen.

  35. #12335
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    Pre dawn on Friday?? Really??

  36. #12336
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    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    WPC's greater than .25 inches of ice


    OKC metro is at 80%

    Tulsa>Western-Central OK

  37. #12337
    So by Halloween we could see a spike in the OKC metro population?
    2 users like Crazyivan's post: ImTheDude, jdmt37


  38. #12338
    How about far northeast Texas panhandle? The Amarillo weather guys are the suck so we have no idea what is going to happen out here!!
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  39. #12339
    Originally Posted by Bruno Gianelli View Post
    Dammit.

    I hate ice so much. 2007 really ****ed with me being without power for a week in Norman.

    We are Cub' neighbors now so this one is going to be close. Starting to look like Edmond/OKC is going to get hammered with crippling ice whereas Moore/Norman could be completely spared.

    C'mon Newcastle. Be far enough south to avoid horrible weather ... for once, spare us God.
    We take all the naders. Let someone else have the damn ice.
    4 users like oucub23's post: Bruno Gianelli, dio, jdmt37, ouwasp


  40. #12340
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Pre dawn on Friday?? Really??
    "Rain/freezing rain developing after midnight".

  41. #12341
    Originally Posted by Harry Paratestes View Post
    How about far northeast Texas panhandle? The Amarillo weather guys are the suck so we have no idea what is going to happen out here!!
    Dude, don't hate on Doppler Dave Oliver

  42. #12342
    The wind in DFW the past 2 days has been ruthless. Even in the middle of the night, which is unusual.

  43. #12343
    NWS Norman video update


  44. #12344
    Originally Posted by Harry Paratestes View Post
    How about far northeast Texas panhandle? The Amarillo weather guys are the suck so we have no idea what is going to happen out here!!
    GFS showing no ice.

    NAM showing generally 1/4 inch ice with isolated pockets of 1/2 to 3/4.

    Going to depend on where exactly the low pivots to the north.

  45. #12345
    David Payne just showed some maps in his forecast and had the freezing line well south of OKC into Sunday. He had 0.25-0.50 for most of OKC and 0.75-1" north of a line from NW OKC up through Stillwater. But then he put up a graphic that said the ice would be a "nuisance" for OKC.

  46. #12346
    i predict at least 5 pages of whining that the weather people were wrong....
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  47. #12347
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    i predict at least 5 pages of whining that the weather people were wrong....
    If it gets me out of having to drive to KS for a soccer tourney, I'm ok with the whining.

  48. #12348
    Well, we're planning on a visit to the BoK Center in downtown Tulsa this Friday evening. Hope the freezing line stays west of Tulsa.

  49. #12349
    80 degrees in Lawton

  50. #12350
    Appreciate all you weather guys, feels like we have own personal forecasts!

    And lastly, we have not head from Doppler Dog but thats usually only once it gets close we can count on him for accurate late info.

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