Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

Posted 1129 day(s) ago by KCRuf/Nek809289 Views 13616 Replies
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  1. #12351
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Good news for OKC/Tulsa, models are trending warmer and putting the freezing line farther NW. It still drops the freezing line through Norman and OKC for a period of time, but pushes it back to the NW, so it would mainly be a cold rain event. NW of OKC though would see the major ice. This of course will change again, but good to see the freezing line trend farther NW.
    Oh please, oh please, oh please.

  2. #12352


    NWS just posted this update which really doesn't say anything new. We're not going to know anything concrete until later on in the week.

  3. #12353
    Originally Posted by Wailer View Post


    NWS just posted this update which really doesn't say anything new. We're not going to know anything concrete until later on in the week.
    Nope. And I'm glad they are communicating that well. Not sure it will get clearer soon either. We are now in range for the NAM to show temps for the extremely early hours of Friday, and the NAM has the cold front all the way to Texas, while the newest GFS for the same hour has the freezing line not even to OKC, a good 50 miles north of OKC. Also has most of OK just getting rain (has it a lot warmer) for the weekend. So yeah, not getting better as high res models get in range.



    Here are the models for temps 84 hours out

    NAM



    GFS

    2 users like chsguy2013's post: BoomSoon2016, OU48A


  4. #12354
    GFS for 100, Alex
    2 users like pphilfran's post: kingswitz, Wailer


  5. #12355
    It's still 5 days out, it's too hard to predict what will happen. Too many variables.

  6. #12356
    i'll wait till thursday to fill up my gas cans and the generator...

  7. #12357
    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    GFS for 100, Alex
    I-44 for $200


    When in doubt, follow I44
    The following users like this post: pphilfran


  8. #12358
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    I-44 for $200


    When in doubt, follow I44
    I am 1 mile east of I44 so I can breathe easy....

  9. #12359
    -3 Saturday morning. 65 Monday afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet next Friday.
    4 users like pphilfran's post: FackYouMS, Sooner Showtime, Strangers, waynepayne


  10. #12360
    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    -3 Saturday morning. 65 Monday afternoon. Freezing rain and sleet next Friday.
    At least your golf game is good to go.
    3 users like sheepdogs's post: DakotaXIV, Mjcpr, pphilfran


  11. #12361
    Originally Posted by ImTheDude View Post
    Driving to KC for a soccer tourney Friday, this ought to be fun.
    Winter Magic? Years ago took my son to that tourney up there.

  12. #12362
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    Winter Magic? Years ago took my son to that tourney up there.
    Not doing winter magic this year, he wanted to play in the futsal regional tourney instead.
    The following users like this post: chantundefeated


  13. #12363
    McRib's Avatar
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    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).

  14. #12364
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    I love driving out to Enid, particularly in the winter.

  15. #12365
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    NM

  16. #12366
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    I thought he was everyone's friend.

  17. #12367
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    just take enough clothes to last thru Monday.

  18. #12368
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    Originally Posted by Wailer View Post
    just take enough clothes to last thru Monday.
    Gross.
    The following users like this post: brokebacksooner


  19. #12369
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  20. #12370
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is it still too far out? I'm planning a trip to Enid on Friday (to see my friend 87).
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    2 users like 87sooner's post: McRib, pphilfran


  21. #12371
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    I have some tartar sauce and toothpicks if you need any.

  22. #12372
    Everyone store up on your liquor just in case

  23. #12373
    A record low of -3 was set Sat morning for OKC
    There is a legit chance of setting a record high tomorrow. Record of 77. Forecast high around 75.
    2 users like pphilfran's post: McRib, SoonerVikeThunder


  24. #12374
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    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    Yes sir, it's my favorite.

  25. #12375
    McRib's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    A record low of -3 was set Sat morning for OKC
    There is a legit chance of setting a record high tomorrow. Record of 77. Forecast high around 75.
    We are laying to rest an 11 year old tomorrow and doing a balloon release - beautiful weather will be appreciated.
    The following users like this post: Oldnslo


  26. #12376
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    are we doing lunch at the usual place?
    You're not cooking her your famous and amazing steaks?

  27. #12377
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    We are laying to rest an 11 year old tomorrow and doing a balloon release - beautiful weather will be appreciated.
    You should have it. Though sw wind gust to 20 should be expected
    The following users like this post: McRib


  28. #12378
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    Originally Posted by pphilfran View Post
    You should have it. Though sw wind gust to 20 should be expected
    That will be a good balloon-carrying wind.
    The following users like this post: pphilfran


  29. #12379
    Newest models pushing the freezing line farther NW. Could spare OKC
    7 users like chsguy2013's post: Bob, Crazyivan, OrionJc, OUDoc, RedStripe, SoonerSean03, SoonerVikeThunder


  30. #12380
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Why can't we have nice things.....like snow?
    The following users like this post: xman


  31. #12381
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Newest models pushing the freezing line farther NW. Could spare OKC


    The following users like this post: oucub23


  32. #12382
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Newest models pushing the freezing line farther NW. Could spare OKC
    Would you say, with recent historical experience as your guide, that these models are more like Lee Corso or less like Lee Corso?

  33. #12383
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    Would you say, with recent historical experience as your guide, that these models are more like Lee Corso or less like Lee Corso?
    GFS is like Lee Corso. Euro is more like Kirk Herbstreit. NAM is more like Danny Kannell, it has an opinion on some things, but also overdoes it
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  34. #12384
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    GFS is like Lee Corso. Euro is more like Kirk Herbstreit. NAM is more like Danny Kannell, it has an opinion on some things, but also overdoes it
    So what does GFS say? I'll then believe the opposite.

  35. #12385
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    So what does GFS say? I'll then believe the opposite.
    It's the warmest. Has basically nothing in OK but rain.
    The following users like this post: oucub23


  36. #12386
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    It's the warmest. Has basically nothing in OK but rain.
    DANG IT!!!! In that case it looks like it will be record frigid temps with freezing rain then snow.

  37. #12387
    GFS gets a bad rap. Truth is both the Euro and GFS have known to be out to lunch a few times, and both have handled certain events with uncanny accuracy. The GFS has seen some major tweaking in the last couple of years to its algorthims and is much better than years past.

    The key is model consistency and agreement. I have seen way to many people put too much stock in the Euro.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  38. #12388
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    GFS, EURO, NAM .... wtf is this... a foreign currency convention?
    2 users like ChpThril's post: DirtyBob, oucub23

    Last edited by ChpThril; January 10th, 2017 at 09:31 PM.

  39. #12389


    NWS has the freezing line still a little south of OKC as of 2pm. A little different than what I saw on ch4 today at noon.

  40. #12390
    I liked Emily Sutton's Oreo cookie explanation best.

  41. #12391
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    Originally Posted by Mississippi Sooner View Post
    I liked Emily Sutton's Oreo cookie explanation best.
    She lost me on the oreo thins... Then...boobs.... and I was done.
    6 users like kingswitz's post: chsguy2013, jdizzle, Mississippi Sooner, oucub23, pphilfran, Wailer


  42. #12392
    The GFS continues to track the upper level a bit further west and north. For the GFS this has been a trend for the last 48 hrs. It wants to pull the system north quicker and put the colder air further north. Not sure how the Euro is handling it, but based on current trends from the GFS I see this more of a KS storm and perhaps bits of NW OK.

    Central OK could be spared heaviest ice, but whoever does see ice could see a lot. This will be catastrophic storm somewhere, just not thinking OKC at the moment.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  43. #12393
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    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    This will be catastrophic storm somewhere.
    A true catastrophic ice storm is on a scale that probably very few of us have ever seen….
    It can take several months to restore full power and cause significant structural damage.

  44. #12394
    Channel 9 this morning had about 2/3 of the state covered in ice - on a line from the SW corner up to the NE. Channel 4 this evening had it more north of OKC but said we'd see at least some ice (and tons of rain).

    It's going to be an awful mess wherever the ice storm sets down.
    2 users like SoonerSean03's post: ekeithly, OU48A


  45. #12395
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    A true catastrophic ice storm is on a scale that probably very few of us have ever seen….
    It can take several months to restore full power and cause significant structural damage.
    Right now GFS (again I don't have access to the Euro) is showing a large swath of 2 in. + ice totals across most of KS. The only question, if a forecast like this verifies, is how much is sleet vs freezing rain. The GFS, regardless of location, has mantained high moisture content and where ever the bullseye, keeps showing 2 in. totals over a very large region.

    If the amounts verify, and it falls as freezing rain you are looking at a storm capable of equaling the 2007 ice storm. Widespread collapse of the electrical infrastructure would be expected. And it would not be localized. I think OK misses the worst, but I would not want to be in KS. And if the colder scenario plays out, then OKC would have a lot of moisture for a winter system like this to play with.

    Edit - Looking at the models again I would say 1.5 in covers large swaths of KS with fairly decent sized localized amounts of 2 inches. This is on par with the 2007 ice storm.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  46. #12396
    00Z GFS update - the GFS continues the NW trend of the low, with it cutting north slightly further west. Not a huge shift from 18Z, but the trend continues.

    GFS keeps OKC wet. NW Oklahoma around Woodward, maybe east to Enid, looking at half inch to an inch of ice accumulations. Still a potent ice storm if it happens.

    KS, especially NW regions still on track for a major ice storm. Easily in the 1.5+ range for most areas. Widespread 2 inches in localized amounts.

    I personally am rooting for continued shift west of the storm track. It brings the storm closer to the Denver MSA and would put the area into a possible up slope snow event for the front range, with lots of moisture. As of right now SE CO is in play for good snowstorm.
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  47. #12397
    my generator wouldn't start today..
    that's what i get for loaning it out....
    2 users like 87sooner's post: ImTheDude, OU48A


  48. #12398
    Tulsa area looks to be spared from anything significant.
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  49. #12399
    Weather.gov seems to be, at least moderately, favoring the OKC metro. Their forecast for Edmond is for a low of around 30 Thursday overnight into Friday with rain/freezing rain. But then a high Friday of 39. For Norman the overnight low is 32 and the day time high Friday is 36.

    If those temps turn out to be accurate maybe we'll avoid the worst of the ice. Temps in the low 40's on Saturday too.

  50. #12400
    [QUOTE=ekeithly;3227056]Right now GFS (again I don't have access to the Euro) is showing a large swath of 2 in. + ice totals across most of KS. The only question, if a forecast like this verifies, is how much is sleet vs freezing rain. The GFS, regardless of location, has mantained high moisture content and where ever the bullseye, keeps showing 2 in. totals over a very large region.

    If the amounts verify, and it falls as freezing rain you are looking at a storm capable of equaling the 2007 ice storm. Widespread collapse of the electrical infrastructure would be expected. And it would not be localized. I think OK misses the worst, but I would not want to be in KS. And if the colder scenario plays out, then OKC would have a lot of moisture for a winter system like this to play with.


    Been nice knowing you Kansas, enjoy your roaming herds of woolly mammoth.
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