Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

Posted 1396 day(s) ago by KCRuf/Nek1375850 Views 16005 Replies
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  1. #12351
    McRib's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    "Rain/freezing rain developing after midnight".
    Gross.

    Also, my sister is in Edmond, mom is west, I'm just north of I-40. Maybe we need to load up and go to brother's in Austin?

  2. #12352
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    Appreciate all you weather guys, feels like we have own personal forecasts!

    And lastly, we have not head from Doppler Dog but thats usually only once it gets close we can count on him for accurate late info.
    Doppler is outside enjoying the sunshine. Her range is only about 50 miles.
    4 users like pphilfran's post: CZECHVAR, gratefulRed, kingswitz, SoonerVikeThunder


  3. #12353
    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Gross.

    Also, my sister is in Edmond, mom is west, I'm just north of I-40. Maybe we need to load up and go to brother's in Austin?
    Somebody is going to get some significant icing. If you want to get out you better get out tomorrow.

  4. #12354
    I'm supposed to fly out of OKC at noon on Friday.

  5. #12355
    My area loses power when someone dumps their ice chest. Since we are end of the line we are last to get power restored.

    I reserved a room for two nights at the casino. They have a generator. If I am iced in I plan on making the most of it.

  6. #12356
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    Originally Posted by 1stTimeCaller View Post
    I'm supposed to fly out of OKC at noon on Friday.
    Well, airports can be fun.
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  7. #12357
    Originally Posted by SoonerVikeThunder View Post
    Appreciate all you weather guys, feels like we have own personal forecasts!

    And lastly, we have not head from Doppler Dog but thats usually only once it gets close we can count on him for accurate late info.
    just read this from the nws.......it's what all the weather people do....

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product....n=1&glossary=1

  8. #12358
    Originally Posted by ouwasp View Post
    Well, we're planning on a visit to the BoK Center in downtown Tulsa this Friday evening. Hope the freezing line stays west of Tulsa.
    If the temp drops to freezing it will be items located above the surface which will have the greatest chance of freezing for the temperature today was close to 80 and the ground/street temps are too warm to facilitate freezing road conditions unless the temps stayed at freezing or below for an extended period of time (not projected at this time).
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  9. #12359
    Just amazing - OKC hit a record of 79 today. And in 36 hours we'll have icemaggedon 2017.
    4 users like SoonerSean03's post: Clark W. Griswold, Keef, RedStripe, SoonerVikeThunder


  10. #12360
    it's already gusting 20mph out of the north at medford...

  11. #12361
    McRib's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    Just amazing - OKC hit a record of 79 today. And in 36 hours we'll have icemaggedon 2017.
    And 72 hours or whatever ago we tied a coldest ever record.
    2 users like McRib's post: SoonerSean03, SoonerVikeThunder


  12. #12362
    The wind, as usual, has ruined a very nice day temp wise. Bleh.

  13. #12363
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    ****in, bring it. Got firewood, generator gas, booze, food, smokes. **** it.
    2 users like jdmt37's post: CZECHVAR, gratefulRed


  14. #12364
    Odds of .10 inches of ice for you Tulsa folks

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  15. #12365
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    The neighborhood Wal Mart at Rock Creek and NW 36th in Norman was starting to run low on bread and some meat items…. It was pretty busy for 9 pm.

  16. #12366
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    The neighborhood Wal Mart at Rock Creek and NW 36th in Norman was starting to run low on bread and some meat items…. It was pretty busy for 9 pm.
    I was there about 3:00 and got in and out pretty quick. Folks must have watched the evening weather or something. I did notice that they were running low on tortillas. Is everyone making burritos this ice storm?

  17. #12367
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    I was there about 3:00 and got in and out pretty quick. Folks must have watched the evening weather or something. I did notice that they were running low on tortillas. Is everyone making burritos this ice storm?
    I noticed the same thing at Homeland in Norman. Dropped in early afternoon to pick up a script from the Pharmacy...and the parking lot was bustling. Pharmacist said EVERYONE was coming in to get their meds, etc "due to the ice storm coming". I told her not to worry....because my weather geek friends on the interwebs have assured me the bad ice isn't reaching Norman. Will I owe her an apology next week??
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  18. #12368
    KFOR really seems to be playing up the worst case scenario.
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  19. #12369
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    i predict at least 5 pages of whining that the weather people were wrong....
    Soooo..... like you in the banning thread...???
    3 users like Breadburner's post: oorah_okie, oucub23, waynepayne


  20. #12370
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    KFOR really seems to be playing up the worst case scenario.

    not buying it...
    mike morgan would never do that....

  21. #12371
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    KFOR really seems to be playing up the worst case scenario.
    Does he have a sparkly tie on? If he does then it's serious.
    2 users like chsguy2013's post: McRib, OrionJc


  22. #12372
    Originally Posted by 87sooner View Post
    not buying it...
    mike morgan would never do that....
    he said it would be best to get away from this storm. He recommends traveling north on Saturday around 2am.

  23. #12373
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    KFOR really seems to be playing up the worst case scenario.
    Morgan has a deal with grocers, gets a 20% cut of increased revenue for his end of days forecasts.
    The following users like this post: ekeithly


  24. #12374
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Odds of .10 inches of ice for you Tulsa folks

    Forgive me if I'm skeptical but that seems a little too precise.

  25. #12375
    OU48A's Avatar
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    It’s colder this morning than expected which likely means ice totals go up…
    I would suggest that you be well prepared for this one……




  26. #12376
    Yep, not good. l bet freeze line moves further south.

  27. #12377
    OU48A's Avatar
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    KOCO TV CH5 Forecasting icing to start around 2 AM Friday morning in the metro.

    They have the highest ice totals in the west OKC metro which could be in the ¾ to 1 inch range.
    This is going to be a very serious ice storm for some folks.
    The following users like this post: Sarasota Sooner


  28. #12378
    OU48A's Avatar
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    OKC forecast high for Sunday is 50 degrees…..
    For those who will be without heat / power it could be a lot colder

  29. #12379
    Originally Posted by OU48A View Post
    KOCO TV CH5 Forecasting icing to start around 2 AM Friday morning in the metro.

    They have the highest ice totals in the west OKC metro which could be in the ¾ to 1 inch range.
    This is going to be a very serious ice storm for some folks.
    That's interesting bc NWS backed their higher totals up NW ever so slightly early this morning.

    Edit - in fact, last night in Tri-cities they had us at .4-.5" of ice. Today it's .11".

  30. #12380
    NWS forecast for OKC:

    Tonight
    A chance of rain or freezing rain between midnight and 3am, then a chance of freezing rain after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northeast wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

    Friday
    Freezing rain likely before 9am, then rain or freezing rain likely between 9am and 3pm, then rain likely after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New ice accumulation of around a 0.1 of an inch possible.

    Friday Night
    Rain likely before midnight, then rain or freezing rain. Low around 32. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    Saturday
    Rain or freezing rain, becoming all rain after 9am. High near 38. North northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

    Saturday Night
    Rain likely, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

  31. #12381
    Newest WPC outlooks for .10 of an inch of freezing rain




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  32. #12382
    Originally Posted by chsguy2013 View Post
    Newest WPC outlooks for .10 of an inch of freezing rain




    Thank you for the updates chsguy. Do you happen to have the top graph with the viewing option for GT/ET 0.25"?

  33. #12383
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    I was there about 3:00 and got in and out pretty quick. Folks must have watched the evening weather or something. I did notice that they were running low on tortillas. Is everyone making burritos this ice storm?
    Yes.

  34. #12384
    The forecasts for this have been all over the place.

    GFS is now showing light icing creeping into the metro.

    NAM has backed down on ice totals, except for a very small band that produces .2 to .3 inches around 1-44 from OKC to Tulsa. GFS leaves Tulsa out of the fun. Both models still produce highest icing in NW OK and KS.

    As for the TX panhandle the NAM has the ice accumulations cranking up around Amarillo. It produces .25 to .5 inch over most of the region. Except in extreme NW portions of the panhandle where it begins a track of 1.5 to 2 inch accumulations that band into OK and KS. GFS doesn't have ice accumulations until you reach OK.

    NAM is heaviest with accumulations right now compared to GFS. The media really seems to be putting a lot of stock into the Euro.

    KFOR backed down this morning, but KOCO ramped up their forecasts. If I was using the local news as my only sources my head would be spinning. Whose up, whose down, now spin around and trade forecasts. And pick the model with biggest totals because that equals most viewers. There is always a chance the Euro wins, but I think the NWS forecasts are closest to the mark.

  35. #12385
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    Thank you for the updates chsguy. Do you happen to have the top graph with the viewing option for GT/ET 0.25"?
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/ww...=probabilities

  36. #12386
    Originally Posted by Crazyivan View Post
    Thank you for the updates chsguy. Do you happen to have the top graph with the viewing option for GT/ET 0.25"?



    Here's a link that you can play around with
    http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf...=72&ptype=icez


    Here's a map of Tulsa for odds of >.25 inches of freezing rain


  37. #12387
    Originally Posted by ekeithly View Post
    The forecasts for this have been all over the place.

    GFS is now showing light icing creeping into the metro.

    NAM has backed down on ice totals, except for a very small band that produces .2 to .3 inches around 1-44 from OKC to Tulsa. GFS leaves Tulsa out of the fun. Both models still produce highest icing in NW OK and KS.

    As for the TX panhandle the NAM has the ice accumulations cranking up around Amarillo. It produces .25 to .5 inch over most of the region. Except in extreme NW portions of the panhandle where it begins a track of 1.5 to 2 inch accumulations that band into OK and KS. GFS doesn't have ice accumulations until you reach OK.

    NAM is heaviest with accumulations right now compared to GFS. The media really seems to be putting a lot of stock into the Euro.

    KFOR backed down this morning, but KOCO ramped up their forecasts. If I was using the local news as my only sources my head would be spinning. Whose up, whose down, now spin around and trade forecasts. And pick the model with biggest totals because that equals most viewers. There is always a chance the Euro wins, but I think the NWS forecasts are closest to the mark.
    At this point, there's issues with using long range models for this weekend's storm. It takes them a couple hours to process, so by the time the model produces it's output, the weather has already changed by 2 hours. The other issue is because they are long range models, they only go every 6 hours, and when looking at a freezing line, the line could move 5 miles in 1 hour and we wouldn't see it on the GFS/Euro. The 00z Euro last night had a minimum temperature of 36 in Norman and 33 in Tulsa. The actual minimum temperatures in Norman was 25 and Tulsa was 26, so it was off by 11 degrees for Norman and 7 degrees for Tulsa. That's a huge difference. It's good IMO to look at those models for low placement, but at this point, I don't put much stock in the long range models temperature wise, especially when current temps/dews are much lower than what the model put out for the same time period.

    Luckily we are getting in range for the HRRR which will output every hour and the RAP which outputs every 3 hours instead of waiting on the GFS and NAM



    Side note: The newest HRRR is currently running, and if you look at it vs the old HRRR run, it's already going colder than before, only by a degree or two, but that's all you need in a weather event like this. It will interesting to see how the HRRR runs today, if it keeps flipping the freezing line back to the NW after moving it SE or what it exactly does with the freezing line



    Literally, a 1 hour model run difference in the HRRR

    13z run for 11 pm tonight



    14z run for 11 pm tonight

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    Last edited by chsguy2013; January 12th, 2017 at 11:14 AM.

  38. #12388
    This is an amusing NWS updated forecast:

    Tonight
    A chance of rain or freezing rain between midnight and 3am, then a chance of freezing rain after 3am.

    So you're saying it will be freezing rain?
    3 users like SoonerSean03's post: Bob, McRib, Stinger_1066


  39. #12389
    Originally Posted by SoonerSean03 View Post
    This is an amusing NWS updated forecast:

    Tonight
    A chance of rain or freezing rain between midnight and 3am, then a chance of freezing rain after 3am.

    So you're saying it will be freezing rain?
    There's a chance you could be right or are right.
    The following users like this post: Bob


  40. #12390
    The following users like this post: OU48A


  41. #12391
    Travis Meyer and Dick Farout have gone all "Fist of Fury" on this shit...!!

  42. #12392
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    Originally Posted by Breadburner View Post
    Travis Meyer and Dick Farout have gone all "Fist of Fury" on this shit...!!
    lol That's a real name?


    Edit:

    Dick Farout is in the blue bathing suit.


  43. #12393
    Originally Posted by sheepdogs View Post
    If the temp drops to freezing it will be items located above the surface which will have the greatest chance of freezing for the temperature today was close to 80 and the ground/street temps are too warm to facilitate freezing road conditions unless the temps stayed at freezing or below for an extended period of time (not projected at this time).
    So do we still think downtown Tulsa will be okay Friday night until about 11:00?

  44. #12394
    HRRR showing OKC metro around 29 degrees tomorrow morning with freezing rain. Could be an interesting drive

  45. #12395
    oorah_okie's Avatar
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  46. #12396
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    Originally Posted by kingswitz View Post
    lol That's a real name?


    Edit:

    Dick Farout is in the blue bathing suit.



    It's pronounced more like Fuhrow.

  47. #12397
    Mjcpr's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Breadburner View Post
    Travis Meyer and Dick Farout have gone all "Fist of Fury" on this shit...!!
    How so? Haven't seen any screaming and yelling yet.

  48. #12398
    Originally Posted by ouwasp View Post
    So do we still think downtown Tulsa will be okay Friday night until about 11:00?
    The morning forecast is predicting temps to be close to 35 degrees at that point in time so you're good to go. The forecast will be updated in a couple of hours or so thus if there is any change I will bring it to your attention.
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  49. #12399
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    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post


    It's pronounced more like Fuhrow.
    Well that's no fun. I like Far-out better.
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  50. #12400
    Originally Posted by Mjcpr View Post


    It's pronounced more like Fuhrow.
    Spoiler alert..!!!
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