Severe Weather Vol 2-Featuring SATP

Posted 1094 day(s) ago by KCRuf/Nek759603 Views 13044 Replies
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  1. #101
    SoonerAmongThePack's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by booger_flicker View Post
    So it seems like from most sources it won't be too bad today. Even channel five wasn't too excited. But reed thinks it's going to be really bad. Is this mike rubbing off on him?


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    Probably some, but Reed doesn't need much to get him excited.

    And I agree, this is a run of the mill dryline storm day. There might be one or two supercells spitting out some big hail and maybe a tornado. But it's springtime in Oklahoma, which is par for the course this time of year.

  2. #102
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    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    All about the dryline position and orientation today kiddos; how far east it mixes and how sharp it is will determine who has a shot at seeing some springtime fun.

    The HRRR doesn't look too ominous for Oklahoma; it doesn't sharpen the dryline very much. It tries to fire storms off near the metro around 6-7pm before backing the dryline up. It's actually got one robust supercell hanging out around the Red River near sunset but not much else. The NAM keeps the dryline back over Western Oklahoma. makes it much sharper, and surges the dewpoints into the upper 60s over the metro which would spell trouble if any storms form.

    The sharper the dryline (bigger change in dewpoint) the stronger the winds on either side, which will aid storms in forming.

    For now, I'd say look for one or two storms, one of which might take hold and pose a threat, starting somewhere west of I-35. Really could be anywhere from the KS to TX border. They'd move toward the NE. By lunch time or so, we'll have a better handle on how things will play out. Certainly stay weather aware, but we're not looking at an outbreak or anything right now.

    Tulsa peeps: If you get anything it'll be after dark. RIght now, potent setup for tomorrow is expected just to your east, but it's possible that risk area will shift back to the west if the dryline decides to hang out farther west in Western Oklahoma today. So that bears watching.

    Instability is pretty high:


    Simulated radar has a big momma trolling around the Red River
    I need to make a trip into north OKC this afternoon around 4 pm, and won't be back home to southern Logan county until 7:30 or so. My main concern is hail.

    Looking forward to your after lunch updates. Those will help me decide whether or not my trip into town will be worth the risk of getting my car all dinged up.

  3. #103
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    Same here I have title class at 630.


    Banging in OKC!

  4. #104
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Feels pretty creepy today.
    Rather humid morning in Tulsa.

  5. #105
    It's humid as hell out here in Elk City. I can almost feel the air it's so thick.

  6. #106
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    The air feels like gravy!

  7. #107
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  8. #108
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    The air feels like gravy!
    This is why I'd KNOW you'd be a killer chase partner. Pure gold.
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  9. #109
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    The air feels like gravy!
    Reminds me of my formative years in southern Alabama. Do you know how traumatic it is for a HS girl to try to get those big ol' bangs to stand up all day in 98% humidity?

  10. #110
    Originally Posted by oorah_okie View Post
    Rather humid morning in Tulsa.
    humid as ****.

  11. #111
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    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    Hey SATP, what is the outlook for Sunday afternoon in the area between Ft. Worth and Denton, TX? I plan to be at the NASCAR race at Texas Motor Speedway. I'd like to know that odds of me getting wet and the race being delayed. TIA.
    That's what the suites are for... I have a lovely view from Turn 4, looking right down pit road...

  12. #112
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    Originally Posted by Fostercluck View Post
    That's what the suites are for... I have a lovely view from Turn 4, looking right down pit road...
    All I need is an invitation. Can I come sit with you?

    I haven't bought my tickets yet. Waiting until the last minute in case the weather looks like it will be bad. I don't want to buy the tickets and then have the race delayed until late in the evening or the next day.

  13. #113
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    The air feels like gravy!
    Totally stealing this, BTW.
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  14. #114
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    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    All I need is an invitation. Can I come sit with you?
    You can come staff it with me... My Boy Scout troop ushers and mans the info booths up there as a fundraiser. It's easy money and not really work. I've been running one of the info booths for about three years (typically 4140) and it's pretty fun. You get to know the regular patrons pretty well and end up spending most of the time watching the race. Being up in Victory Lane Club is the ONLY way I'd go to the IndyCar race in June, because despite it being a night race it's still pretty damn hot in the stands.

    It's really nice up there now that we have Wifi... I typically have to be there two hours before the gates open and it was nice to be able to watch my Canaries playing on my tablet (other than losing to Mancy 7-0)...

  15. #115
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    Originally Posted by Fostercluck View Post
    You can come staff it with me... My Boy Scout troop ushers and mans the info booths up there as a fundraiser. It's easy money and not really work. I've been running one of the info booths for about three years (typically 4140) and it's pretty fun. You get to know the regular patrons pretty well and end up spending most of the time watching the race. Being up in Victory Lane Club is the ONLY way I'd go to the IndyCar race in June, because despite it being a night race it's still pretty damn hot in the stands.

    It's really nice up there now that we have Wifi... I typically have to be there two hours before the gates open and it was nice to be able to watch my Canaries playing on my tablet (other than losing to Mancy 7-0)...
    If I decide to go I'd like to at least come up and look around if you can get me a pass. I'll PM you once I've made my final decision.

    I was at the Indy Car race in 2012. There were not many people there at all. We pretty much had an entire section to ourselves down close to the fence overlooking the stretch just prior to the S/F line. Two coolers full of iced down beer kept us cool.

  16. #116
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    Originally Posted by ngintunr View Post
    humid as ****.
    I just stepped outside into my screened in porch and the floor is wet. And it has not rained yet here near Guthrie.
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  17. #117
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    Originally Posted by silverwheels View Post
    Totally stealing this, BTW.
    I'll allow it for your lobster ravioli. Or whatever that was.
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  18. #118
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    NWS Tulsa has a briefing up; has an expiration sometime this afternoon:

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  19. #119
    Channel 9 is certainly downplaying the possibility of major storms.

  20. #120
    Originally Posted by IndySooner View Post
    Channel 9 is certainly downplaying the possibility of major storms.
    What does Aaron Tuttle say? He's the only one I trust.


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  21. #121
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    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    I just stepped outside into my screened in porch and the floor is wet. And it has not rained yet here near Guthrie.
    On my way into work this morning it was like I hit a wet line a little south of Waterloo . . . my truck fogged over in seconds.
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  22. #122
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    Very humid here in Fayetteville, AR as well. Every time I walk outside I feel like I need to go right back inside and take another shower

  23. #123
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Feels pretty creepy today.
    When I walked out the door today it felt like I got slapped in the face with a wet towel.
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  24. #124
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    I'll allow it for your lobster ravioli. Or whatever that was.
    I think you meant ****.
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  25. #125
    Originally Posted by bushmaster06 View Post
    When I walked out the door today it felt like I got slapped in the face with a wet towel.
    That wasn't a towel.

  26. #126
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    Originally Posted by bushmaster06 View Post
    When I walked out the door today it felt like I got slapped in the face with a wet towel.
    Is that because Jbird slapped you in the face with a wet towel

  27. #127
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    Originally Posted by McRib View Post
    Is that because Jbird slapped you in the face with a wet towel
    Nah, she was out running errands.
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  28. #128
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    No real change, HRRR still persistent in developing a few severe storms out ahead of the dryline near the metro between 6-7pm. Hail is the primary threat; though a tornado can't be ruled out, low level wind fields aren't as conducive for it. Still only expecting one or two storms if they form at all.

    Dewpoints have surged into the mid 60s but winds are mostly southerly, not southeasterly. That hurts the chances for storms to form at all and reduces tornado risk.


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  29. #129
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    Thank you for the update
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  30. #130
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    all them maps are confusing to me. just tell me when i need to jump in my 'Vette and try to outrun the 'naders.

  31. #131
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    TornadoTitans.com ‏@TornadoTitans 6m Will be pretty surprised if cap holds completely today. Strong convection signals from most wx models and trends say at least isolated dev.
    TornadoTitans.com ‏@TornadoTitans 4m Tornado watch likely for SE KS and Northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Supercells with large hail and tornadoes likely. pic.twitter.com/RwfGCm2bJE

  32. #132
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    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0219 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

    AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST
    MO

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 021919Z - 022115Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR AN ANTICIPATED
    DEVELOPMENT/INCREASE IN SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH LATE
    AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS.
    MORE CERTAIN/IMMINENT SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
    DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE /LIKELY BEFORE 21Z/ FOR
    RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

    DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ROUGHLY W/SW TO
    E/NE ACROSS NORTHERN OK...WITH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING
    NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS. AN
    ADJACENT DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK.
    OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A CU FIELD HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING
    NEAR THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
    AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS.

    ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER
    80S F...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
    STEADILY ABATE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
    2000-3500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE
    SCENARIO OF WEAKENING INHIBITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MODIFICATIONS
    TO A RECENT 18Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED SOUNDING.

    WHILE LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE SUBTLE...ADDITIONAL
    HEATING/SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
    ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY LATE
    AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AIDED BY 40-55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
    WINDS AND AFOREMENTIONED AMPLE INSTABILITY...VEERING/STRENGTHENING
    WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
    HAIL.

    A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
    NORTHERN OK/EXTREME SOUTHERN KS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE
    POINT/WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE TOWARD
    EARLY EVENING GIVEN AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF 1-2 KM AGL
    WINDS.

  33. #133
    SoonerDan74012's Avatar
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    TornadoTitans.com ‏@TornadoTitans 58s Storms likely will initially be pretty high based. Hail main threat early. Secondary threat of tornadoes especially after 6pm.
    TornadoTitans.com ‏@TornadoTitans 1m OKC metro won’t be in the tornado watch when it’s officially out.

  34. #134
    Originally Posted by SoonerDan74012 View Post
    [URL="https://twitter.com/TornadoTitans"][B]
    So....right when they're coming into the metro.

  35. #135

  36. #136
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    Originally Posted by IndySooner View Post
    So....right when they're coming into the metro.
    Force of habit I guess.
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  37. #137
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    TornadoTitans.com ‏@TornadoTitans 24s Official outline of Tornado Watch 46. Could be another South of this one if more signs of storm development happen. pic.twitter.com/qt854OSfwa

  38. #138
    Originally Posted by COLLISON ANGRY View Post
    Very humid here in Fayetteville, AR as well. Every time I walk outside I feel like I need to go right back inside and take another shower
    http://images.search.yahoo.com/image...XQ8J&fr=iphone



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  39. #139
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    TornadoTitans.com ‏@TornadoTitans 4m Red circle is area we are watching now for storm development. Orange circle could happen later. Will have to watch. pic.twitter.com/ozoOnrpRpt



  40. #140
    How does a plebe find hrrr


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  41. #141
    So pretty much no tornado threat for okc? What about hail for okc?


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  42. #142
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    This thread should be stickied for the spring.
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  43. #143
    I think enough things are sticky in landthieves


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  44. #144
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    Originally Posted by booger_flicker View Post
    So pretty much no tornado threat for okc? What about hail for okc?


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    Tornado threat very low, and even the hail threat is lowering as storms are not initiating along the dryline as advertised by the models.

  45. #145
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    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    Do you get waterspouts where you live? I once saw three side-by-side off the coast of Galveston. That was impressive. Was not raining at all where I was standing. It lasted only about 30 seconds and then they all disintegrated, I assume due to the weight of the water.

    Living in Oklahoma I've seen four tornadoes without having to go look for them. I was just in the right place at the right time.
    I have honest not seen one waterspout since I've lived here. Been here since 1993.

  46. #146
    Originally Posted by nolesooner View Post
    I have honest not seen one waterspout since I've lived here. Been here since 1993.
    I guess you need to find a girl who's into that. Maybe she'll do it before marriage.

  47. #147
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    Originally Posted by booger_flicker View Post
    I think enough things are sticky in landthieves


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    i made your wife sticky. btw, how are my kids?
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  48. #148
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    Couple of supercells roaming around north of the border in Kansas along the warm front. Dryline is starting to sharpen and back up. A storm could possibly fire as it retreats, but risk is defintley decreasing.

    For tomorrow, the dryline will mix through the OKC metro by noon and Tulsa by 4pm, and should clear most of Oklahoma from the severe weather threat.

    A non-event it appears for the start of spring storm season.
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  49. #149
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    Originally Posted by Stinger_1066 View Post
    Do you get waterspouts where you live? I once saw three side-by-side off the coast of Galveston. That was impressive. Was not raining at all where I was standing. It lasted only about 30 seconds and then they all disintegrated, I assume due to the weight of the water.

    Living in Oklahoma I've seen four tornadoes without having to go look for them. I was just in the right place at the right time.
    saw one in the bahamas while watching a shuttle launch.

  50. #150
    Originally Posted by SoonerAmongThePack View Post
    Couple of supercells roaming around north of the border in Kansas along the warm front. Dryline is starting to sharpen and back up. A storm could possibly fire as it retreats, but risk is defintley decreasing.

    For tomorrow, the dryline will mix through the OKC metro by noon and Tulsa by 4pm, and should clear most of Oklahoma from the severe weather threat.

    A non-event it appears for the start of spring storm season.

    sure could have used some rain
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